Weekly gain/loss: + 56 pips
Weekly closing price: 1.3268
Weekly demand at 1.3223-1.3395 remains under pressure. We can see that weekly bulls did attempt to advance but failed to cover much ground. In the event that the bears remain dominant here, odds are that the weekly demand base pegged below at 1.3006-1.3115, which happens to intersect with a weekly trendline support extended from the high 1.1278, will see some action.
On the other side of the coin, daily flow continues to be bolstered by a support level penciled in at 1.3212 and a nearby overhead resistance drawn from 1.3272. A decisive push below the said support line could lead to a move being seen down to demand at 1.3050-1.3103 (housed within the weekly demand mentioned above at 1.3006-1.3115).
Since the 14th of June, the H4 candles have been in correction mode, forming a nice-looking ascending channel formation. The week ended with price modestly fading the 1.3312/1.33 green zone (comprised of March/April’s opening levels at 1.3312/10 and the psychological band 1.33), following an aggressive move to the upside in response to lower-than-expected Canadian inflation figures. From our perspective, it’s difficult to believe that this channel will continue its upwardly path. Not only do we have daily resistance at 1.3272 now in play, but let’s also not forget that the current weekly demand is hanging on by a thin thread at the moment.
Our suggestions: Ultimately, to confirm bearish intent, we would want to see H4 price close below both the channel support and the 1.32 handle. This – coupled with a retest and a reasonably sized H4 bearish candle (preferably a full-bodied candle) would, in our opinion, be enough to consider selling this pair, targeting the top edge of the weekly demand at 1.3115. Regarding longs, we would advise treading carefully given the higher-timeframe picture right now.
Data points to consider: US durable goods orders at 1.30pm GMT+1.
Weekly closing price: 1.3268
Weekly demand at 1.3223-1.3395 remains under pressure. We can see that weekly bulls did attempt to advance but failed to cover much ground. In the event that the bears remain dominant here, odds are that the weekly demand base pegged below at 1.3006-1.3115, which happens to intersect with a weekly trendline support extended from the high 1.1278, will see some action.
On the other side of the coin, daily flow continues to be bolstered by a support level penciled in at 1.3212 and a nearby overhead resistance drawn from 1.3272. A decisive push below the said support line could lead to a move being seen down to demand at 1.3050-1.3103 (housed within the weekly demand mentioned above at 1.3006-1.3115).
Since the 14th of June, the H4 candles have been in correction mode, forming a nice-looking ascending channel formation. The week ended with price modestly fading the 1.3312/1.33 green zone (comprised of March/April’s opening levels at 1.3312/10 and the psychological band 1.33), following an aggressive move to the upside in response to lower-than-expected Canadian inflation figures. From our perspective, it’s difficult to believe that this channel will continue its upwardly path. Not only do we have daily resistance at 1.3272 now in play, but let’s also not forget that the current weekly demand is hanging on by a thin thread at the moment.
Our suggestions: Ultimately, to confirm bearish intent, we would want to see H4 price close below both the channel support and the 1.32 handle. This – coupled with a retest and a reasonably sized H4 bearish candle (preferably a full-bodied candle) would, in our opinion, be enough to consider selling this pair, targeting the top edge of the weekly demand at 1.3115. Regarding longs, we would advise treading carefully given the higher-timeframe picture right now.
Data points to consider: US durable goods orders at 1.30pm GMT+1.
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