justatrader
Short

USDJPY - Happy New Year #2016 (Short side still in play)

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
751 18 17
This is the updated chart for the year, from last year.
USDJPY - Happy New Year #2015-Watchlist-1

Price managed to touch to the 123.1 level and there looks to be a move building up to the downside. A close above 123.1 on monthly will invalidate the set up. Expect a gradual decline lower to 106 - 102. Could take 2016 or next year

Watch for break of the steep price channel . There could be a minor move higher which should be the last pop before prices start to fall.

Good luck and Happy and a Profitable New Year
I aim for 113. Good one!
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Mughal2657 IvanLabrie
i don't think so near in the future we gonna see the price at that level bulls are very powerful at the movement i think we gonna see break up in the channel and final 5th wave may appear in the channel as we are at the correction level for the 4th wave.
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Mughal2657 IvanLabrie
FINAL WAVE EXPECTED
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Mughal2657 Mughal2657
every time when price try to break the bulls channel it failed to break the channel for bearish trend
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IvanLabrie PRO Mughal2657
That wave count isn't too clear, and it takes for granted all the structure before it.

I don't subscribe to that count, nor to traditional EW (I do think Neowave has merit, and it's way more strict with the rules needed to come to a complete wave count).

Price will slide down on Monday, I'm 80% sure.
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Mughal2657 IvanLabrie
snapshot
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Mughal2657 Mughal2657
bro these are my thoughts i might be wrong
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Mughal2657 IvanLabrie
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EXAMPLE CASE
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Mughal2657 IvanLabrie
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IvanLabrie PRO Mughal2657
No problem, you're entitled to them. I'm just explaining why I disagree with most EW posts. Cheers.
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Mughal2657 IvanLabrie
okay..... cheers
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You are right in the Pinbar set ups. The short set up I pointed to will be invalidated on a monthly close above 124.10. So there's the upside risk as well and a monthly close would signal a further continued trend higher. But the looks of it now, the downside risk far outweighs the bullish view. 118 will be the main level to watch for and I think only a fundamental catalyst will be able to break that support. If 118 gives way then the declines will likely continue downwards. We got another 5 days left for the monthly to finish, so let's see how price finishes. Will give more clarity.
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Mughal2657 justatrader
agree justatrader
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Mughal2657 IvanLabrie
bro price did not slide on Monday it formed a long legs doji which means trend line holding the price and holding the sell pressure whats you opinion
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IvanLabrie PRO Mughal2657
Yes, the stock market gapped up instead of down, this is very bullish, or at least dangerous to hold shorts in USDJPY or S&P500. If anything they are sideways.

I'm out of S&P500 and didn't short USDJPY again.

Dollar looks weak overall, so I'm long gold, silver and TSLA (speculating oil rallies a bit soon)

Cheers.
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Mughal2657 IvanLabrie
okay thanks bro for replay cheers
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Its only a doji and yes, there is a move to the upside. But shorts are safe as long as prices don't close above 125. I had posted an update to S&P yesterday with expectations of a move to 2050 region. Now 2065/2070 is the line in the sand. If prices move back above that level and dip back to establish support near 2065/2070 then there's a problem. Here's the updated SPX chart.
S&P500 - Prepare for the bears next week


For USDJPY, 122.6 will be key. Today is US final GDP revision and then tomorrow is the big data dump. Not much of a big news to expect strong moves in USDJPY for now.
snapshot
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Institutional Commentary: GS talks about 110/100 in $/Y. http://news.forexlive.com/%21/jp-morgan-on-the-yen-usdjpy-going-back-to-110-and-equilibrium-below-100-20151224
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