ac7777
Short

105.8-106.6 Potential Target for 5th Wave Decline

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
48 2 0
USDJPY             is in a wave 'c' down of the ABC             decline that is correcting the rally from 2011-2015.

Wave 'c' is the post-triangle thrust from wave 'b'. It has completed waves 1, 2, and 3 and is now nearing the end of wave 4. If wave 4 is a triangle, based on its present parameters it appears to be targeting down to at least near the 106 level for the 5th wave.

The 106 level also happens to correspond to the . 382 retracement of the rally from 2011-2015.

At this stage in its development, Wave 4 should not rise above 116.776, which is the extreme of wave 1. That would be the nearest reasonable stop loss level for a short from here, based on the Elliott Wave rule for a 4th wave not ending in the territory of the corresponding 1st wave.
The post-triangle thrust from wave iv has already developed, with a complete 1st and 2nd wave and a 3rd wave in progress now. I have re-assessed the A and B waves higher above and now suspect that the downthrusting C from the B wave has the intention of falling toward 102.3. The presently developing wave v may achieve this target by extending: that would entail completing its 3rd wave near 106, consolidating upward in a 4th wave (which may be another triangle) and then continuing down in its 5th wave to that point.
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An extended 5th wave beyond the cited target level would also not be surprising. I find this is not uncommonly the case when the 3rd wave is only 1.382 the length of the 1st wave, as it appears to be here, rather than 1.618.
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