USD/JPY: First possible 'down' trendline hit...
I initially bought the 100 level but let go of the position when we first hit 105 mainly because I didn't want to loose any profits with the US elections at that stage...
I didn't manage to re-enter though before 113 since all the time I was hoping for a new short opportunity, which didn't come as we know now...
I do think now that a retracement is long overdue so I took profit yesterday on a long I managed to get around 113 and switched to short at 118.60 today. Judging by the stochastics here on the daily we could still see a continuation of the up wave though (allthough on my MT4 platform it's already back to overbought, depends on what settings you use of course...) The MACD also looks like it could be making new highs soon... The volume is also building...
On the weekly charts the stochastics is well overbought but the RSI still has a little room and the MACD is steadily increasing... On the monthly charts the RSI and stochastics don't tell us alot other than the 'up' direction but the MACD is returning to zero from negative values and if it actually goes all the way to zero we still have another 2 or 3 months of bullish momentum... Keep it in mind...
I'm currently looking at the 15min. charts (where a possible double top shows) to see if we can break below a trendline I drew below the lows that formed after the main surge from yesterday's rate decision. When it breaks I will be more confident for the short. If it goes back up I will close 50% of the short I took today at BE and I will add again at a higher level as part of a phased entry, next entry will then be around the 120 round level (0.786 ret. and next possible trendline...)
This short is counter-trend trading of course but since a retracement is long overdue it could be succesful on the short- to midterm...
I didn't manage to re-enter though before 113 since all the time I was hoping for a new short opportunity, which didn't come as we know now...
I do think now that a retracement is long overdue so I took profit yesterday on a long I managed to get around 113 and switched to short at 118.60 today. Judging by the stochastics here on the daily we could still see a continuation of the up wave though (allthough on my MT4 platform it's already back to overbought, depends on what settings you use of course...) The MACD also looks like it could be making new highs soon... The volume is also building...
On the weekly charts the stochastics is well overbought but the RSI still has a little room and the MACD is steadily increasing... On the monthly charts the RSI and stochastics don't tell us alot other than the 'up' direction but the MACD is returning to zero from negative values and if it actually goes all the way to zero we still have another 2 or 3 months of bullish momentum... Keep it in mind...
I'm currently looking at the 15min. charts (where a possible double top shows) to see if we can break below a trendline I drew below the lows that formed after the main surge from yesterday's rate decision. When it breaks I will be more confident for the short. If it goes back up I will close 50% of the short I took today at BE and I will add again at a higher level as part of a phased entry, next entry will then be around the 120 round level (0.786 ret. and next possible trendline...)
This short is counter-trend trading of course but since a retracement is long overdue it could be succesful on the short- to midterm...
Comment:
Time to think about taking profit! Possible support coming up but culd still have some downward momentum in it, acceleration today...
Comment:
Anyone who took the short should have taken TP1 around 112 and trailed SL to BE as per my previous update. Now it's time to trail SL to around 116 (above possible B of retracement or wave 2 of impulse) and pick TP2 as per my new idea, details and levels to watch here:
SL to 10 pips in profit, 118.50...