ICmarkets
Long

Confluent 4hr AB=CD pattern close to completion!

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
211 0 2
Weekly view: Last week’s action saw the USD/JPY             plummet south, which, as can be seen from the chart, pushed prices down to test a weekly support barrier coming in at 118.22-119.25. Consequent to this, the pair shredded close to 270 pips off its value into the close 119.02. Given the ferocity of the prior week’s pin-bar (black arrow) through this weekly support, we remain unsure how many active bids remain within this vicinity.

Daily view: Branching lower to the daily chart , it is clear to see that during Wednesday’s trade, price drew support from 119.21, reaching highs of 120.68 on Thursday. Friday’s action, however, swallowed any gains seen From Wednesday’s initial push and closed the week above a potential daily support level at 118.38.

4hr view: Other than the sharp sell-off early on during Friday’s trade, 4hr price action was quiet throughout the NFP release as price spent much of its time munching on bids/offers around the 119.00 psychological level.

Taking into consideration the points made above, our team has their eye on 118.38/118.00 for buy trades today/this week. Here’s why:

1. Potential support from the daily timeframe lurks around the 118.38 region.
2. A near-perfect 4hr Harmonic AB=CD pattern is in the process of forming and completes just below 118.38 at 118.20.
3. 61.8% Fibonacci support coming in around the 118.23 region.
4. Just below these three barriers is the psychological support 118.00. Now, you know if we were to enter long at the AB=CD completion zone, price would almost guaranteed fake below to 118.00 taking us out of the trade, hence the inclusion of this number in our 4hr buy zone.

The only grumble we have entering long here is the possible weakness at the current weekly support zone mentioned above at 118.22-119.25. However, a bounce will still likely be seen from the 4hr buy zone due to its impressive converging structures. That being the case, we have placed an alert at 118.47, which if triggered, will be our cue to begin watching for lower timeframe buying confirmation within and around the 4hr buy zone. Should the above come to fruition, partial profits will be taken at 119.00.

Levels to watch/ live orders:

• Buys: 118.38/118.00 Tentative – confirmation required (Stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this region).
• Sells: Flat (Stop loss: N/A).

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