dead2live
Short

USDJPY SHORT SELL SETUP H4

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
4 months ago
Sell USDJPY             when Stoch is clearning down below 75 and only then. This will confirm most likelyhood that it has cleared support area. (Mt4 provides visually clearer signal on Stochastic .)

I will manage the trade. Take profit can be 102.77 (existing support and also 100 moving average that will act as minor support).

The 100 moving average (magenta) and 200 moving average (yellow) coincide with fib retracement lines. Take profit as you see fit.

Note: USDJPY             is extremely bearish on all upper time frames. Some suggest she is bearish for entirety of this year, fundamentals notwithstanding.

GL
4 months ago
Trade active: SL 104.498
TP 102.77
4 months ago
Comment: USDJPY Update:

Manual backtesting H4 in such a scenario reveals a preference for the USDJPY to range beneath the 200ma before shooting up in parabolic fashion. Then, it stumbles down and sells off once reaching beneath the 200ma in a trend such as this.

This behavior can be confirmed with the "high and tight" flag where price currently resides. According to Bulkowski, these patterns have a high probability of breaking out into the continuation of a trend.

Thus, I must consider this trade is not likely to go my way. My preference: If I cannot find a good exit point, I will wait patiently for its return down. Or I might exit and reverse the trade. I prefer not to chase trades. It depends on price action at the time.


Resistance points for potential buys are 104.757. Then, 106.00/106.69. If the 106 resistances are breeched, there is a chance it will ride to 107.55ish (trendline).

Stoch indicator has not yet bounced from its current position. Thus far, the sell trade is still active.

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