9/26/14: This pair touches 50sma on 260 for 1st time since beginning of bullish run last month. Japanese CPI data came in line with the consensus view.
This week put in the top for this pair imho. Everything is lining up for major pullback:
FUNDAMENTALS
1) 2yr mark since 1st arrow of Abenomics, ushering in unprecedented monetary policy to combat deflation
2) FED will struggle to put a floor on rates with RRP facility, already raising the limit by a substantial amount. I think the market will view this as dollar weakness.
3) US Equity markets puked today as a sign of risk off. (stronger yen)
TECHNICALS
1) Price rejected around the intersection of multi-year trend line resistance, pitch forkmedian line, and the fib ext channel. Oddly enough, rejection point is roughly the time (2yrs) since Japan began the war on deflation. (In other words, yen drop began at the end of September 2012 with the technicals hitting profound, major resistance this week!)
2) Even if US GDP print comes in strong, RSI indicates overbought conditions on daily, weekly, and monthly. CAVEAT: MAY HAVE ROOM TO RUN UP TO 109.66 IF NUMBER 2 STUNS MARKETS TOMORROW.
ANOTHER CAVEAT: Im just a young armchair economist that tries to make a lil money trading on the side to pay back student loans. I work in the oilfield but love the foreign exchange market and learning the technical aspect of trading!
This week put in the top for this pair imho. Everything is lining up for major pullback:
FUNDAMENTALS
1) 2yr mark since 1st arrow of Abenomics, ushering in unprecedented monetary policy to combat deflation
2) FED will struggle to put a floor on rates with RRP facility, already raising the limit by a substantial amount. I think the market will view this as dollar weakness.
3) US Equity markets puked today as a sign of risk off. (stronger yen)
TECHNICALS
1) Price rejected around the intersection of multi-year trend line resistance, pitch forkmedian line, and the fib ext channel. Oddly enough, rejection point is roughly the time (2yrs) since Japan began the war on deflation. (In other words, yen drop began at the end of September 2012 with the technicals hitting profound, major resistance this week!)
2) Even if US GDP print comes in strong, RSI indicates overbought conditions on daily, weekly, and monthly. CAVEAT: MAY HAVE ROOM TO RUN UP TO 109.66 IF NUMBER 2 STUNS MARKETS TOMORROW.
ANOTHER CAVEAT: Im just a young armchair economist that tries to make a lil money trading on the side to pay back student loans. I work in the oilfield but love the foreign exchange market and learning the technical aspect of trading!