Long Term Analysis. Buy the Break Out? Bullish Bias!
Price has just breached the high from the beginning of the year
which was also the 3/8 fib of the large Bear Wave June 2007/Oct 2011.
The PF I have drawn has Median Anchorpoint in the reaction low
Feb2012 w add. anchors in March and Sep 2012 swing. In April
and May 2013 Price corrected from overbought conditions, the
2nd time in a long lasting wedge. Since Jan 2014 price entered
a new long phase of consolidation, but never managed to test
the Yearly Pivot Point. Right now most signs are bullish and since
Price has been building up energy during a long phase, the move
can be substantial and lasting, hence Yearly R1 seems as a
reasonable target for longs from this break out. Hurdles on the
way is the Median line of the Pitchfork (red line) which supported
price late 2013 and in March this year. Also a rising wedge top
can be drawn to encapsulate all PA since 2013. This may be
in confluence with the Median line and give additional resistance.
Downside risk is a retest of the break out level 105,60 and a
return back into previous range, perhaps to test the Yearly PP
which in most cases are traded. However, bias is bullish with a
test of the Yearly R1 as first destination, around 111,50. This
is also right above the 61,8 of the CD leg in ABCD pattern.
Note how slow the CD action is compared to the impulsive AB
move of sep 2012/May 2013.This emphasize the importance
of the rising wedge and that price still is within this consolidation.
The real break out is above 107,50-108, that could spark a new
rally up towards 120, the D level, technically speaking.
which was also the 3/8 fib of the large Bear Wave June 2007/Oct 2011.
The PF I have drawn has Median Anchorpoint in the reaction low
Feb2012 w add. anchors in March and Sep 2012 swing. In April
and May 2013 Price corrected from overbought conditions, the
2nd time in a long lasting wedge. Since Jan 2014 price entered
a new long phase of consolidation, but never managed to test
the Yearly Pivot Point. Right now most signs are bullish and since
Price has been building up energy during a long phase, the move
can be substantial and lasting, hence Yearly R1 seems as a
reasonable target for longs from this break out. Hurdles on the
way is the Median line of the Pitchfork (red line) which supported
price late 2013 and in March this year. Also a rising wedge top
can be drawn to encapsulate all PA since 2013. This may be
in confluence with the Median line and give additional resistance.
Downside risk is a retest of the break out level 105,60 and a
return back into previous range, perhaps to test the Yearly PP
which in most cases are traded. However, bias is bullish with a
test of the Yearly R1 as first destination, around 111,50. This
is also right above the 61,8 of the CD leg in ABCD pattern.
Note how slow the CD action is compared to the impulsive AB
move of sep 2012/May 2013.This emphasize the importance
of the rising wedge and that price still is within this consolidation.
The real break out is above 107,50-108, that could spark a new
rally up towards 120, the D level, technically speaking.
