USDJPY- At 109.75 will 3rd wave end?

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
1371 25 24
Last Price@109.25

(( )) - means bracket wave

There is a slight modification in my count where I shifted my wave-((i)) top at 105.53 as compared to 104.63. In that case, 161.8% of wave-((i)) distance comes in close proximity of 109.70-109.95.

Current High of 109.75 has hit the required distance for wave-(( iii             ))- in that case we are likely to start the corrective sequence for wave-((iv)) which will be in the form of ABC & will retrace 38.2% minimum distance of wave-((ii)) - wave-(( iii             )) distance which comes in the zone 106.50-106.60

Trading Strategy
If UJ comes close to 109.50-109.55 then keeping a strict stops above 109.80 one can look for corrective sequence.

Trade active: 21:55 Hrs 16th Nov2016

Last Price@109.25

UJ went exactly to the desired zone of 109.50-109.55 -slightly surpassed & made a high@109.59 protecting our top@109.75

Trading Scenario-1
We are in the driver's seat & feeling excited - from here 108.35-108.45 is the zone where likely UJ holds, then we can expect a bounce, which should not go above 109.06-109.10- then it falls again which will complete A-wave -it's too premature to say anything at this moment.

Trading Scenario-2
If UJ fails to even give target zone of 108.35-108.45 & keeps moving sideways then it could form a triangle which will finally thrust upside.

Trading Scenario-3
It could give us a target of 108.35-108.45 & bounces back - when it bounces back -if it goes above 109.05-109.10 then it will form- likely it will go close to highs of 109.75 or slightly higher & then fall again to new lows of 106.50-106.60

So let us wait & watch - How UJ moves next

Moving to Indian Version

Trade active: 07:20 Hrs 17th Nov2016

Last Price@109.00

Scenario-3 mentioned looks like unfolding-- UJ dropped close to target zone of 108.35-108.45 - made recent low@108.55 & bounced

Trade active: 07:55 Hrs 17th Nov2016

UJ is trading in the channel as shown below- needs to cross on the upside so that it can go close to 109.70-109.75 zone, giving us a B - wave (which is premature at the moment)

Trade active: 13:52 Hrs 17th Nov2016

Last Price@108.85

Going Below 108.75 -UJ can continue downside

Trade active: 15:38 Hrs 17th Nov2016

Last Price@109.15

Key Support Zone-108.75-108.80

We are likely looking for a corrective sequence "abc" within 4th wave downside.
Going below 108.75-108.80 only - UJ will move down in c-wave else, yet to finish b-wave can go close to 109.75 previous high. So, it could head to 109.60-109.65 zone & likely than start downside, but be careful, it should not sustain & move above 109.75 for long as it could start moving upside beyond 110 to new highs.

Trade active: 15:50 Hrs 17th Nov2016

Last Price@109.10

"Avoid Trading longs"
Trading b-wave is very tough, so likely avoid taking any long positions & going below 108.80 - it will start downside or upside resistance is 109.75 for bears
Trade active: 19:22 Hrs 17th Nov2016

Scenario Played out as mentioned overnight @21:55 Hrs 16th Nov2016

Likely if UJ starts falling back below 109.35-109.45 zone sustains below sooner or later will start down move which will be pending c-wave

This running move can extend close to 109.60-109.75 highs

Warning - If UJ goes above 109.80 & sustains then likely it will extend upside else staying below 109.60-109.75 zone - we will expect a down move.
Best Regards,
Abhishek H. Singh, CMT
India Regional Manager
| LinkedIn
India Markets-BSE, NSE chat room- https://in.tradingview.com/chat/#b4sFOMIVqPkq8gfQ
@AbhishekHSinghCMT , Hello Abhishek, I am new in Forex, could you please tell me whether we can trade forex in India?
I am Indian working in Japan but here due to Japanese language its difficult find more info..
Hello Abhishek, I am new in Forex, could you please tell me whether we can trade forex in India?
I am Indian working in Japan but here due to Japanese language its difficult find more info..
Thanks a lot abhishek, is really a great chart and scenarios provided for consideration. Will have a lot to learn from you in the coming future...most appreciated.
@tim141072, Welcome
WhT do u think about Usdjpy now,it was slowly going up is that a consolidation and going up
AbhishekHSinghCMT fxmoneycontrol
@fxmoneycontrol, Ya looks like it was small retracement upside- made a close by high at 109.45 as expected for possible bounce from 108.35-108.45 zone. In current situation- going below 108.75 -likely it will continue down
@danrindia, Wow- It touched 108.55 close by to target zone & bouncing back@108.90
gulz AbhishekHSinghCMT
@AbhishekHSinghCMT, do we need to cancel the stop loss 109.8 ?
@gulz, yes likely it could be wave-A down then bounce back in Wave-B which could even make new highs or just miss that high- telling upfront will be tough- we just need to re-enter sell later but it unfolded as mentioned above in scenario-3- which can be ABC combination again
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