JLS: USDJPY Long, Medium & Short Term Target Zones
The U-shape time series currency band indicates for USDJPY to upward in long term. The upward long term directional movement also followed by the continuing raising of the Japanese holding on the US Treasuries accelerated since October 2018 to February 2019 rose to $ 1.072 trillion. At 10 % target zone management with consistent to upward alignment and re-alignment then the Japanese treasury holders may print 10-15 % annual return. The estimated price of the USDJPY in long term about 180.00.
The S-curve time series currency band indicates for the USDJPY to upward in medium term and to downward in short term with alignment and re-alignment to upward. The time series interest rate differential currency band also to indicate to upward in medium term and to expect the Fed for rate hiking in the future.
The current estimated medium term target zone for USDJPY is 107.00-102.00-117.00 and at 112.00 the Fed/BOJ undertook market sterilization to slower the weakening of JPY by the USD from 112.00-107.00 and the pair is currently underway to upward by rivisiting the 102.00 the estimated central band/parity of the current medium term target zone. At 107.00, the JPY carry traders were carried the USD and USD-denominated debt securities and to drive the USDJPY from 107.00-102.00 for 500 PIPs.
Based on time series interest rate differential currency band, the USDJPY will continue to move to upward 107.00-102.00-117.00 for estimated 10 % medium term target zone and the pair is still stabilized at central band/parity 112.00. The JPY carry traders seems already re-entered the market by re-carrying the USD and USD-denominated debt securities at 109.75 to drive the USDJPY back to central band/parity 112.00 and this re-carrying will continue up to 117.00.
The long term upward price movement of the USDJPY to 180 is expected by the Japanese holders of the US Treasuries and the upward medium term price movement is expected by the JPY carry traders, bu excessive capital inflow to pressure the Fed/BOJ to sterilize at upper band/ceiling to central band/parity and followed by the JPY carry traders for profit booking and re-carry trading activity.
At such, in medium term the USDJPY will continue to move to upward up to 117.00 as expected by JPY carry traders and in long term the USDJPY will continue to move to upward up to 180 as expected by the Japanese holders of the US Treasuries. Thus, downward short term is sterilization effort to slower the weakening of JPY by USD.
The combined U-shape and S-curve of the time series currency band and the time series interest rate differential based currency band collectively to indicate for USDJPY in long term and in medium term while the downward short term is the result of Fed/BOJ sterilization efforts to slower the weakening of JPY to anticipate the US exportation price competitiveness to Japanese economy.
The S-curve time series currency band indicates for the USDJPY to upward in medium term and to downward in short term with alignment and re-alignment to upward. The time series interest rate differential currency band also to indicate to upward in medium term and to expect the Fed for rate hiking in the future.
The current estimated medium term target zone for USDJPY is 107.00-102.00-117.00 and at 112.00 the Fed/BOJ undertook market sterilization to slower the weakening of JPY by the USD from 112.00-107.00 and the pair is currently underway to upward by rivisiting the 102.00 the estimated central band/parity of the current medium term target zone. At 107.00, the JPY carry traders were carried the USD and USD-denominated debt securities and to drive the USDJPY from 107.00-102.00 for 500 PIPs.
Based on time series interest rate differential currency band, the USDJPY will continue to move to upward 107.00-102.00-117.00 for estimated 10 % medium term target zone and the pair is still stabilized at central band/parity 112.00. The JPY carry traders seems already re-entered the market by re-carrying the USD and USD-denominated debt securities at 109.75 to drive the USDJPY back to central band/parity 112.00 and this re-carrying will continue up to 117.00.
The long term upward price movement of the USDJPY to 180 is expected by the Japanese holders of the US Treasuries and the upward medium term price movement is expected by the JPY carry traders, bu excessive capital inflow to pressure the Fed/BOJ to sterilize at upper band/ceiling to central band/parity and followed by the JPY carry traders for profit booking and re-carry trading activity.
At such, in medium term the USDJPY will continue to move to upward up to 117.00 as expected by JPY carry traders and in long term the USDJPY will continue to move to upward up to 180 as expected by the Japanese holders of the US Treasuries. Thus, downward short term is sterilization effort to slower the weakening of JPY by USD.
The combined U-shape and S-curve of the time series currency band and the time series interest rate differential based currency band collectively to indicate for USDJPY in long term and in medium term while the downward short term is the result of Fed/BOJ sterilization efforts to slower the weakening of JPY to anticipate the US exportation price competitiveness to Japanese economy.