USD/JPY technicals and trade set-up

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
160 0 4
USD/JPY tests resistance at 7DMA, moving sideways to slightly bearish – Tunnel spread to fetch yields in choppy range:

As you can probably observe the pair making the unstoppable streak of downswings ever since it has rejected at channel resistance and steep slumps on last Friday which exactly took a support at channel base (see daily chart ).

At present, the upswings have been rejected at 7DMA after the formation of hanging man which is a little bearish indication when you consider the major downtrend.

On the broader perspectives, this pair looks quite weaker ever since it has broken strong supports at 112.396 and 105.380 levels.

Leading indicators show little downward convergence to every dip in prices. RSI has been making lower lows consistently with declining prices on monthly charts, ( RSI values become more accurate as the calculation period extends).

An attempt of %K crossover below oversold zone have not been convincing at an early stage of reversal in last week as well as in this week because volumes began shrinking away when prices began bouncing and there is no substantiation from other indicators.

For signals, Bollinger Bands can be used to identify M-Tops and W-Bottoms or to determine the strength of the trend. Signals derived from narrowing band-width.

Keeping this trend in mind we reckon, irrespective of the swings, we rely on narrowed down stochastic , RSI and as the price rejected at 7DMA that pop up with selling pressures at this juncture.

So smart way to approach this pair is to deploy the option tunnel using ATM puts is structured as a binary version of a conventional put spread, i.e. long delta puts with higher strikes while writing the lower strikes for above mentioned targets on either side.

Therefore an In-The-Money tunnel would be formed of an In-the-money -0.75 delta put below the current exchange rate less an Out-Of-The-Money put above the exchange rate. The delta of -0.55 on combined position with slightly negative theta is preferred on this execution.

Alternatively, the short-term bears can eye on shorts in near month futures for further southward targets with the stiff stop-loss of 103.801 levels.
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