4xForecaster

$JPY Nears Target-High @ 106.614 | $USD $JPY #Yen #Nikkei #forex

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
635 29 10
Friends,

Model defined qualitative target high at 106.614:

- TG-Hi = 106.615 - 09 SEP 2014

These targets carry high-probability reversal (not just retracement), whereby price could potentially be repulsed down to carve lower lows.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
thanks David for this post
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO manijeh.kazemi.33
2 years ago
Thank you @manijeh.kazemi.33 - A bit short in content, but considering the proximity, I chose brevity over prose. The model works on its own, but it won't type for me - David
+2 Reply
David, I really believe in your knowledge, works and methods, and a loyal follower. But the scary strength in USD in recent days and the weakness in JPY, makes me a bit cautious for a strong reverse. However, this is what I hope to happen, as I missed to ride this move so far.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO HamedAghajani
2 years ago
Hello @HamedAghajani - The data gets churned into a model that is not right 100% of the time as far as retracement vs. reversal outcome.

I agree with you: The fundamentals may not be in support of an imminent reversal either. Let's see what reality brings us.

On a more general basis, the technical analysis upon which the model is based, will continue to assume that fundamental events have already been "printed" in the data, and that charting only represents a visual fact unveiling to the eyes what news releases only reveal to the ears after the fact.

But, as always, time holds the veil.

David
+1 Reply
Sam0101 4xForecaster
2 years ago
great call forecaster. What are the support expected?
+1 Reply
alex.a
2 years ago
The flow of the money, all those risk aversion, all those flows commodity to major currency, I learned actually by trading when I didn't know anything AUDUSD up sharply when EURUSD down. It was shocking experiences, when USD gets strong, AUD must go down. I'm sure you know why the change of currency pairs when, I mean exactly when --- i.e. when the price is XXX, sell one and buy the other. I'm glad you are here. Thanks eternally ~
Reply
10 SEP 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
-----------------
$USDJPY Hit Qual-Target @ 106.614; Hi-Prob. Reversal:

snapshot


via @tradingview | $USD $JPY #Yen #forex #BOJ $AUD $NZD
----------------


snapshot



This being a Qual-Target (i.e.: TG-Hi/Lo) makes this a high-probability reversal opportunity. Unsure at this point whether it will hold, considering that there remains over 70 mins before candle completes - Keeping an eye on this one.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
thank you
Reply
normis manijeh.kazemi.33
2 years ago
David, you think this could go in a reversal?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO normis
2 years ago
Hello @normis - This is an unofficial "Worst Case Scenario" outcome. Not published on this thread yet, until I get further technical confirmation.


https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#5eHLst6YxeVqGlaO
(link is where I post some lessons and ideas on predictive analyses and forecasting, as well as upcoming charts to be released if meet prerequisites, such as this $USDJPY)


Cheers,

David
Reply
Hi david Hope you are fine what is zoar view on this pair now
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO manijeh.kazemi.33
2 years ago
Hello @manijeh.kazemi.33 - The analysis remains unchanged.

1 - Price hit target
2 - Target is a Qual-Target, thus susceptible to reversal (not just retracement), although the reversal may simply be a very deep double-bottom or down to less than 0.618 of recent swing (but then, that would simply be a deep retracement)
3 - Price has stalled right at the target line, posting a significant reversal geometric pattern called a Terminal Diagonal (or Ending Diagonal)

$USDJPY - H4 Chart: Total View:
snapshot


$USDJPY - M14 Chart: The Tipping Point ... To High-Probability Reversal:
snapshot



Cheers,


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
Sam0101 4xForecaster
2 years ago
hey david, what you think about the forthcoming rate decision of kiwi?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sam0101
2 years ago
My take is that NZD is heavily dependent on Asian theater demand. As of now, these markets are suffering from their own lack of export of their own. In particular, i would look at China with its internal issues (debt crisis, real estate, ethnic discordance and demographic slump). So, all these tightly-wound interrelated markets lack one thing: Demand.

Without a demand (in particular an anticipated slump in agricultural demand), there is no chance for a rate hike.

The real blow for NZD is a significant change in dairy price, which diminishes the country's revenue through taxation of a higher priced commodity. If price fell (as it did by as much as 6%), then there is this much LESS chance of a rate hike at all.

Just my honest opinion.

The result would be a weaker NZD, which has already absorbed a lot of this fundamental cost in the pair, judging by the recent abysmal charts.

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
Sam0101 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Thanks David.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sam0101
2 years ago
You are welcome - David
Reply
HamedAghajani PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Thanks David!
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO HamedAghajani
2 years ago
My pleasure - David
Reply
KevinT 4xForecaster
2 years ago
I started counting that ABCDE 1 wave earlier. So the WW didn't work out. Anything wrong with my approach?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO KevinT
2 years ago
Hi, @KevinT - Do you have your chart, just so that I can count using your waves?
- David
Reply
4xForecaster PRO KevinT
2 years ago
By the way, are you referring to the small wedge in BLACK or the entire 1-2-3-4-5 pattern numbered in BLUE?

snapshot


In any case, price is leaving the right side of the pattern and acting as it should for the geometry, looks like.

David
Reply
thank david for this post very much
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO manijeh.kazemi.33
2 years ago
You are very welcome - David
+1 Reply
10 SEP 2014 - Update:

* * * NEW Major Banks' FX Position * * *


=================
Credit Suisse entered $AUDUSD Short via filling a limit order at 0.92 (Short-Term)
=================
(Forex intel: https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#xsmm44S00HaO5wCZ )

David
Reply
11 SEP 2014 - Forex Intel: Short-term Bullish US Dollar Positions Cancelled Against A Potential Longer-Term Fundamental Adverse Development - Is It Real?

"Danske's limit order to Short $AUDUSD (Short-Term) got canceled "

This is tantamount to cancellation of a $USD long position and a possible removal of support/bearish pressure over $USD. Hence, prepare to see major USD crosses reflexively react to a possible BEARISH $USD push.

Keep an eye on this possibility, especially here, as are already straddling the forecast target: "TG-Hi = 106.614 - 09 SEP 2014"


snapshot




A BEARISH $USD would indeed provide the reversal mechanism necessary justify the reversal purported by the Qual-Target. Considering that this face-about by major institutional banks goes against recent short-term positioning, I would assume that overriding fundamental pressures are developing, which would possibly be released in the news. I would look to chart development as to the potential impact of said fundamental development (if there truly is any such adverse and sudden event causing effacement of current short-term speculative positions - See more of these moves in this Forex Intelligence "Forex Intel" Room here: https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#xsmm44S00HaO5wCZ ).

Cheers,


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
would you please post your trade set up once it has materialized kindly thats very kind of you if its no trouble for you
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO manijeh.kazemi.33
2 years ago
Hello @manijeh.kazemi.33 - I am not sure I understand what trade set up you are referring to. The post and commentary for this chart is twofold:

1 - Model signals a Qual-Target attainment and thus warns against a potential reversal

and

2 - If reversal was to occur indeed, the bottom target reflects a prop pattern (called Euclid).

Whether the reversal occurs remains a matter of probability, independent of the model and prop pattern's probabilities to pre-define a value for such eventuality.

David
David
+1 Reply
thank you david you,re right Im sorry to have troubled you
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO manijeh.kazemi.33
2 years ago
@manijeh.kazemi.33 - No trouble at all. I was not sure what your question was. I am always glad to help whenever I can - David
+1 Reply
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