Model defined qualitative target high at 106.614:
- TG-Hi = 106.615 - 09 SEP 2014
These targets carry high-probability reversal (not just retracement), whereby price could potentially be repulsed down to carve lower lows.
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I agree with you: The fundamentals may not be in support of an imminent reversal either. Let's see what reality brings us.
On a more general basis, the technical analysis upon which the model is based, will continue to assume that fundamental events have already been "printed" in the data, and that charting only represents a visual fact unveiling to the eyes what news releases only reveal to the ears after the fact.
But, as always, time holds the veil.
$USDJPY Hit Qual-Target @ 106.614; Hi-Prob. Reversal:
via @tradingview | $USD $JPY #Yen #forex #BOJ $AUD $NZD
This being a Qual-Target (i.e.: TG-Hi/Lo) makes this a high-probability reversal opportunity. Unsure at this point whether it will hold, considering that there remains over 70 mins before candle completes - Keeping an eye on this one.
(link is where I post some lessons and ideas on predictive analyses and forecasting, as well as upcoming charts to be released if meet prerequisites, such as this $USDJPY)
1 - Price hit target
2 - Target is a Qual-Target, thus susceptible to reversal (not just retracement), although the reversal may simply be a very deep double-bottom or down to less than 0.618 of recent swing (but then, that would simply be a deep retracement)
3 - Price has stalled right at the target line, posting a significant reversal geometric pattern called a Terminal Diagonal (or Ending Diagonal)
$USDJPY - H4 Chart: Total View:
$USDJPY - M14 Chart: The Tipping Point ... To High-Probability Reversal:
Without a demand (in particular an anticipated slump in agricultural demand), there is no chance for a rate hike.
The real blow for NZD is a significant change in dairy price, which diminishes the country's revenue through taxation of a higher priced commodity. If price fell (as it did by as much as 6%), then there is this much LESS chance of a rate hike at all.
Just my honest opinion.
The result would be a weaker NZD, which has already absorbed a lot of this fundamental cost in the pair, judging by the recent abysmal charts.
"Danske's limit order to Short $AUDUSD (Short-Term) got canceled "
This is tantamount to cancellation of a $USD long position and a possible removal of support/bearish pressure over $USD. Hence, prepare to see major USD crosses reflexively react to a possible BEARISH $USD push.
Keep an eye on this possibility, especially here, as are already straddling the forecast target: "TG-Hi = 106.614 - 09 SEP 2014"
A BEARISH $USD would indeed provide the reversal mechanism necessary justify the reversal purported by the Qual-Target. Considering that this face-about by major institutional banks goes against recent short-term positioning, I would assume that overriding fundamental pressures are developing, which would possibly be released in the news. I would look to chart development as to the potential impact of said fundamental development (if there truly is any such adverse and sudden event causing effacement of current short-term speculative positions - See more of these moves in this Forex Intelligence "Forex Intel" Room here: https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#xsmm44S00HaO5wCZ ).
1 - Model signals a Qual-Target attainment and thus warns against a potential reversal
2 - If reversal was to occur indeed, the bottom target reflects a prop pattern (called Euclid).
Whether the reversal occurs remains a matter of probability, independent of the model and prop pattern's probabilities to pre-define a value for such eventuality.