The dollar index bounced off resistance after making a new 5 day high following key US data. We are currently negative for the day. Daily close Support comes in at 11828 and resistance at 11913. The dollar is clearly in a down trend and you can see that in most currencies being positive against the US Dollar so far this year.
U.S. consumer prices barely rose in March and underlying inflation slowed, suggesting little urgency for a cautious Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in the near term. A rate hike is unquestionably off the table for April, with a June rate increase increasingly unlikely barring a surge in domestic activity and perceived calm on the international front," said Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel Fixed Income in Chicago. core CPI, which strips out food and energy costs, inched up 0.1 percent after two strong monthly readings. March's increase in the core CPI was the smallest since August and followed a 0.3 percent rise in February. The Fed has a 2 percent inflation target and tracks an inflation measure which is running below the core CPI.
The Fed's policy-setting committee meets on April 26-27. Market-based measures of Fed policy expectations have priced out a rate hike at this month's meeting and have almost eliminated the chances of a move in June, according to CME Group's Fed Watch. It currently gives a 41 percent probability of a rate increase in November and a 55 percent chance in December. The Fed lifted its benchmark overnight interest rate in December for the first time in nearly a decade and policymakers recently forecast only two more rate hikes this year.
In a second report, the Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 253,000 for the week ended April 9. That matched the level for early March, which was the lowest since November 1973. Jobless claims have now been below 300,000, a threshold associated with healthy labor market conditions, for 58 weeks, the longest stretch since 1973. Below are screen shots of todays data.
- Consumer prices rise 0.1 percent in March.
- Core CPI edges up 0.1 percent, slows from February.
- Weekly jobless claims fall 13,000
U.S. consumer prices barely rose in March and underlying inflation slowed, suggesting little urgency for a cautious Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in the near term. A rate hike is unquestionably off the table for April, with a June rate increase increasingly unlikely barring a surge in domestic activity and perceived calm on the international front," said Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel Fixed Income in Chicago. core CPI, which strips out food and energy costs, inched up 0.1 percent after two strong monthly readings. March's increase in the core CPI was the smallest since August and followed a 0.3 percent rise in February. The Fed has a 2 percent inflation target and tracks an inflation measure which is running below the core CPI.
The Fed's policy-setting committee meets on April 26-27. Market-based measures of Fed policy expectations have priced out a rate hike at this month's meeting and have almost eliminated the chances of a move in June, according to CME Group's Fed Watch. It currently gives a 41 percent probability of a rate increase in November and a 55 percent chance in December. The Fed lifted its benchmark overnight interest rate in December for the first time in nearly a decade and policymakers recently forecast only two more rate hikes this year.
In a second report, the Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 253,000 for the week ended April 9. That matched the level for early March, which was the lowest since November 1973. Jobless claims have now been below 300,000, a threshold associated with healthy labor market conditions, for 58 weeks, the longest stretch since 1973. Below are screen shots of todays data.
- UNITED STATES CPI MM:
i.imgur.com/kXrvRUv.png
- UNITED STATES CPI YEAR ON YEAR:
i.imgur.com/84X7lHr.png
- UNITED STATES CORE CPI MM:
i.imgur.com/KlkDCT7.png
- UNITED STATES CORE CPI YEAR ON YEAR:
i.imgur.com/ieUiChi.png
- UNITED STATES INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS:
i.imgur.com/Tokfowu.png
Comment:
the 14th daily candle close as a Doji after pulling back from resistance
it as a gauge to overall Dollar strength or weakness.