Dollar Drops As Fed Hike Certainty Rises
What are we to make of a drop from the USDollar on a day when the probability of a December rate hike moves even higher - from 68% to 72% according to the CME's Fedwatch measure from Fed Fund futures?
Relative monetary policy has been a tremendous and consistent driver for much of the FX market for the past months, so it is unlikely that it is suddenly rendered ineffectual. Instead, we are likely seeing the short-term speculative traders playing the break to 12-year highs post-NFPs folding. But that doesn't change the underlying fundamental conditions supporting the Greenback.
Relative monetary policy has been a tremendous and consistent driver for much of the FX market for the past months, so it is unlikely that it is suddenly rendered ineffectual. Instead, we are likely seeing the short-term speculative traders playing the break to 12-year highs post-NFPs folding. But that doesn't change the underlying fundamental conditions supporting the Greenback.