CapMoore

USD/RUB Daily Study. AB=CD Completion and Levels to watch

FOREXCOM:USDRUB   U.S. Dollar / Russian Ruble
858 5 5
Price has completed a rather harmonic AB=CD with this
last move up. A break above 37,20 could accelerate upward
move, since a failure of respecting the pattern completion
often result in dramatic PA. However, from a technical
point of view on Daily time frame, the level right now is not
attractive for longs. Either wait for a break higher (preferably
on a close basis) or try to trade the AB=CD pattern with a
minimum target at 33,31 or if a 3 Drive pattern is forming
(2nd yellow down leg) look for longs around 34,00-34,40
area.
MARKETS ARE NOT IN DEPENDS OF WARS
Reply
Russian central bank will intervene to keep RUB under 40 in any case. it's a policy. RUB interest rate up 2%, moreover RCB still makes money: buy cheep RUB from panicking population and then sell back high after heat settled down. Just look at amplitudes for last 3 years. Doesn't drive economy to fast, but they'll need to pay for bread and butter in RUB at the end.
Reply
Interesting thanks for the chart. However I do feel with such a fluid and dynamic situation in Ukraine, technical analysis is somewhat extraneous. Right now, there is a good chance war could break out and the ruble would hit 50 easily. I just produced a chart on natural gas, and its a similar situation with that as well. In my opinion it's impossible to predict, except a general sentiment that it will get worse before it gets better and so the ruble will continue to plunge.
Reply
CapMoore PRO maccabean
Fortunately tech analysis is not about prediction but rather to find levels so that you can define your risk
when entering a trade. What is happening in Ukraine is impossible to know the chances for either development,
still, you have the levels here and you can stick to that. You have a plan. Pediction is something else.
Reply
INGA CapMoore
It is very interesting to look at the new technical analysis today. Thanks!
Reply
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