YaKa

USDRUB Update

3343 14 4

The last 72 hours of trading have just been crazy.

Until Friday, RUB had depreciated from 33 to 56 in a year.

From Friday it spiked up from 56 to 78 in 3 days.

My last post underestimated the potential spike while assuming it was final wave 5 (and could have had a relation with the previous move up.

There is a more extreme reading where wave 1 only started monday.... In which case wave 5 would still be missing.

if wave 5 = wave 3, target is 84.
If wave 5 = 161.8 x wave 3, target is 96

This is crazy. It can be traded though:
1 - by reducing sizes to very small (i.e 3/5% max in a real pro portfolio)
2 - by waiting for local             extremes

I suggested to short 69 which makes money now after going to 77 (note my stop are always on close unless otherwise specified)
Take profit here...

NEXT trade:
short 2% at 84
short 3% at 96
if i miss c'est la vie, this currency was never on my radar... so only looking at trades that should make money or provide an exit opportunity on any retracement....

Extremes are probably in the 80/120 area. Not sure though as tangible metrics are broken beyond a certain point.
jangseohee
2 years ago
Simple, when Emotional indicator, when price FLIES away from my 8ema too far away, say about >20%, time to go full short with averaging..
Reply
YaKa PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
very good way yes.. 95% you win... in small size that can afford 50% moves you can win in 95% of cases.
+1 Reply
jangseohee YaKa
2 years ago
So they though Putin is "paper Tiger" too timid to make a tough call haha
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dp
2 years ago
Listen guys, there is the formula P*USDRUB=3600, that was officially announced by Russian economic development minister Ulukaev, which is the condition of filling the budget for 2014.

Here P is crude price in $ ( for Urals mix, which can be substituted by Brent price). The number 3600 is nothing but price of the barrel in Russian rubles. It is the condition of selling certain amount of barrels to have the budget for 2014.

Now, it's clear that fair USDRUB value is around 60. All above is more or less speculation and panic. Budget is already overfilled due to panic deviations of USDRUB from fair value, so USDRUB can be easily artificially dropped without fear of not fulfilling social obligations.

If someone is anxious legs or hands cut by freight train, welcome to the long side.

+1 Reply
Mickette dp
2 years ago
And your calculation works!
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jangseohee Mickette
2 years ago
dp has a (permanent head damage - PhD) in physics!
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Mickette jangseohee
2 years ago
... an imminent Russian scientist...
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Romanyse Mickette
2 years ago
Russia's budget is dependent on oil - it can be a useful indicator of the price.
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Romanyse dp
2 years ago
in 2015 the formula P * USDRUB = 4000
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dp
2 years ago
Putin is acting Judo sportsman, keep it in mind. He never forgives opponent's hits or public offenses.

His tactics is not action by brutal force, but waiting, whatever long it takes, for the opponent's weakness and hitting back at the most unexpected moment. Sometimes, he warns upfront about it, sometimes not.

He warned about USDRUB.
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Romanyse
2 years ago
Good post, thanks.
Why do not you buy usd / rub? Potential is very good.

Additional information for the benefit of the ruble.
Today the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank prinyalm set of rules.
1. CB refenansiruet corporate currency corporate credit at the rate of 42 rubles.
2. The Ministry of Finance began selling its foreign currency balances to stabilize the ruble. The volume of of these balances is $ 7 billion

Some experts believe it is wrong.
Reply
Romanyse
2 years ago
Good signal if we update 78 - will move up to 80-120)))
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dp
2 years ago
Still too unpredictable for me to long ruble -- too much of under-carpet activity and unknown variables, including geo-politics.
Reply
Romanyse dp
2 years ago
Yes - high risk work on a strong Volatility
Reply
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