The last 72 hours of trading have just been crazy.
Until Friday, RUB had depreciated from 33 to 56 in a year.
From Friday it spiked up from 56 to 78 in 3 days.
My last post underestimated the potential spike while assuming it was final wave 5 (and could have had a relation with the previous move up.
There is a more extreme reading where wave 1 only started monday.... In which case wave 5 would still be missing.
if wave 5 = wave 3, target is 84.
If wave 5 = 161.8 x wave 3, target is 96
This is crazy. It can be traded though:
1 - by reducing sizes to very small (i.e 3/5% max in a real pro portfolio)
2 - by waiting for local extremes
I suggested to short 69 which makes money now after going to 77 (note my stop are always on close unless otherwise specified)
Take profit here...
short 2% at 84
short 3% at 96
if i miss c'est la vie, this currency was never on my radar... so only looking at trades that should make money or provide an exit opportunity on any retracement....
Extremes are probably in the 80/120 area. Not sure though as tangible metrics are broken beyond a certain point.
Why do not you buy usd / rub? Potential is very good.
Additional information for the benefit of the ruble.
Today the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank prinyalm set of rules.
1. CB refenansiruet corporate currency corporate credit at the rate of 42 rubles.
2. The Ministry of Finance began selling its foreign currency balances to stabilize the ruble. The volume of of these balances is $ 7 billion
Some experts believe it is wrong.
His tactics is not action by brutal force, but waiting, whatever long it takes, for the opponent's weakness and hitting back at the most unexpected moment. Sometimes, he warns upfront about it, sometimes not.
He warned about USDRUB.
Here P is crude price in $ ( for Urals mix, which can be substituted by Brent price). The number 3600 is nothing but price of the barrel in Russian rubles. It is the condition of selling certain amount of barrels to have the budget for 2014.
Now, it's clear that fair USDRUB value is around 60. All above is more or less speculation and panic. Budget is already overfilled due to panic deviations of USDRUB from fair value, so USDRUB can be easily artificially dropped without fear of not fulfilling social obligations.
If someone is anxious legs or hands cut by freight train, welcome to the long side.