Short the Swedish Krona ASAP

FX:USDSEK   U.S. Dollar / Swedish Krona
131 4 5
Monster opportunity here. Too many signs of a bottom in my book. Supported by horizontal structure (Weekly and Monthly), lower boundary channel, advanced pattern on the daily, and a short time frame (4hr - 1hr) libra pattern.
Comment: Strongly strongly believe we bottomed today. Go long on tonight/tomorrow's likely retracement
Trade active: I am long from 8.08
Comment: I am already long at 8.08 as stated previously, but for those not yet involved, here is an excellent entry opportunity. I will add to my position at the 61.8% level.

Trade active: Added at 8.0725. Looks like this could be very profitable if truly bottomed.


Lift off

Trade closed: stop reached: Trade Closed at 8.05xx on Thursday
Comment: Learn from my mistakes. Poor stop placement is a killer
It was a nice setup - still possible for it to move higher, but in my opinion you can't make conclusions about a one hour bar for a D1 or higher time frame. For a time frame that high the only reliable bar is H4, H6, or H8 (possibly even H2). Any periods lower and you get too many fake-outs. Those time frames are not indicative of "real" moves - at least not ones that impact the higher period. Even if you do find the bottom with H1 you are more likely to get stopped out 1 or 2 times before it really becomes the bottom.
+1 Reply
Lanmar kosai19
Very true indeed. Thanks for input. I typically have a failing trade when executing on a lower time frame to trade on a higher one. But I do this for the obvious reason - to take on a large amount of leverage with relatively low risk. While it could still turn higher, I'm inclined to believe this turning into a short opportunity.
Lanmar kosai19
Good call on this still possibly moving higher, Kosai.
Yeah it's possible but the rally is looking bearish to me (based on a lot of things but mainly how D1 is moving higher). W1 seems like it wants to test and reverse around 8.4. If it's very bearish then it can reverse now on D1. The way that I trade is to wait for price to confirm by giving me a good down bar to enter with. In my years of experience support and resistance means nothing until the market confirms by generating a completed reversal (i.e. a completed star candlestick formation). By completed I mean the actual down bar that follows the star formation (i.e. in an up-trend there's an up bar, the star, then the down bar that follows - with the down bar being the "confirmation" bar). You don't get the exact top or bottom but you also don't get stopped out 1 or 2 times - which makes it the most profitable way to trade.
+1 Reply
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