The market is priced 4.75 increase on the monetary policy so if below 4.75 open long for USD if equal or above 4.75 open long for Turkish Lira. No increase in monetary policy, open long USD taking 10 as a target
Comment:
The next week I am expecting DXY to increase so USD can be long against the Turkish Lira the next week. Anyway, the midterm first target is 7.48. If the support line cannot hold it there, the next target is 7.22
Comment:
we might test 8.20 and even 8.31. Whenever the rally is over, I think it will get back to 7.76. I am still sticking to the mid-term target.DXY is increasing as I mentioned earlier. The rally might get over after DXY hit somewhere around 92.900
Comment:
We tested 7.76 and see support at this horizontal line. Anyway, Ichimoku cloud (1h) conversion line, base line, and lagging span is going down so we might test out the first target 7.48 the next week if no sudden surprise
Comment:
Dec 24, 2020, Turkey One-Week Repo Rate will be declared so a week before the downward trend might get started. The new chairman is serious. I don't think it will let it go. The new year within January 2021, might be a different story. The strong lira story might get last within Jan 2021. Stock Markets cannot break high records every month so I expect the correction in January, not in December. Good Luck
Comment:
From the next week on till December 24th, the meeting of the central bank, we might see a weaker dollar story vs Turkish lira and also for Euro. ECB's monitoring euro statement will cost 10 days rally. This is what I am going to price in the near term. Whatever the market expectation is at the Dec24th meeting, Mr.Chairman will give it to the market. I don't expect surprises on Dec24th