USD/TRY technicals and trade setup

FX:USDTRY   U.S. Dollar / Turkish Lira
210 0 2
Never buck USD/TRY             major trend, bulls rout all set to retest all-time highs – “Diagonal Call Spreads” on its functionality”:

The pair is edging higher at 3.3073 levels, likely to retest all-time highs of 3.3164 levels.

Please be noted that the pair has consistently been spiking higher above DMAs, we advise capturing dips to add longs as it is likely to create fresh highs.

Remember we often keep urging “never buck the trend, as per the thumb rule: the trend is your friend”, USDTRY             both minor and major uptrend has been robust, so we advise “never go against the extremely bullish trend that's setting new highs.

You could even get the better clarity on the monthly chart, after long lasting range; the bulls have bounced above upper range after testing support at 7EMA.

Accordingly, we, therefore, have been advocating suitable FX option strategy to keep these bullish streaks on the check.

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We still uphold the above-advocated FX option spreads as the further upside risks are foreseen and our longs in calls are on pretty well on its functionality, in outright trades, we maintain the longs in USDTRY             1m15d debit call spreads, complementing above aspects and IV shift, the position reduces the hedging cost almost close to 50%.

1m ATM IVs are spiking higher above 15%, which is conducive for option holders, Call spreads are preferred over vanilla structures given elevated skew and favorable cost reduction.

Buy USDTRY             (3.2793/3.3456) call spread with 1m15d at a net debit.

The net delta of the position should be around 24 (3.2793 ITM             strike = 65 delta) and selling the upper leg call (OTM strikes) likely to reduce the cost of the ITM             call by almost close to 20-25%.
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