USDTRY: Offering interesting downside

FX:USDTRY   U.S. Dollar / Turkish Lira
652 9
I'll be monitoring this pair for a short entry soon, if we break the weekly support, and expand the daily range down we might get sufficient reason to get involved on the short side.
The setup is purely technical, I'm not considering Turkish fundamentals but if anyone wants to expand on them, maybe they can shed some light on this setup.
Feel free to leave your comments.
Good luck if taking this trade.


Ivan Labrie.
Time at Mode FX

Looking solid, took a 3 ATR entry first, will add once we get further confirmation. Downside is gigantic.
Comment: In case you haven't, check this chart:

Since I posted it, USDTRY effectively topped. I think it's still in play, with a 55% probability at least.

View of the FOMC key support and resistance levels.
If we break down convincingly, huge downside opens up.
Trade active
Trade closed manually: Closed manually for -0.15%
I'll wait, not safe to short yet.
Comment: Probably safe to short it again.
Comment: If you reentered a month ago like I suggested, you'd be in great profit.
Expect a retracement since we hit the first target, but it could just continue marching down.
It seems to have hit support (?). I think if the price passes the channel resistance, there is a big chance we will see a bounce back up to at least 3.00-3.06 (In my opinion). I guess all will be told next week. Good luck!
+1 Reply
+1 Reply
great call
IvanLabrie Realisto_FX
Thanks, I think it has good downside, worth a shot or two.
Feel free to post your analysis of it here, would appreciate your take.
Possible Pitchfork pattern broke but Long Support is still viable. What I often notice in this pair is that if it has a bad week, it has a tenancy to stop on support on Friday and bounce back up the Monday after. I am fairly confident that it will bounce back up, but if it goes under 2.91-2.88, it is a hopeless cause to buy USDTRY for the time being.
I don't know yet, but for now it looks good.
I took a wide stop entry first to 'feel' the water.
I'll add more once it breaks decisively.
+1 Reply
objective analysis still too extravagant. Middle East is not correct to think of the fall of the boiling parity.
On this one too, way smaller target for now but lets see

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