FX:USDZAR U.S. Dollar/South African Rand
With the Municipal elections over there seems to be some change in the air. The market seems to be defined by previous market structure and has reached the 61.8% retrace of the previous impulse. With the time running out for the downgrade to junk status for the Rand and a looming USD hike we may just see the end of the Rand's good run happening soon. For now the previous structure seems to be defining an area for some correction. Possibly there is some space for a little more Rand strength but then? Looking for the big change around the end of September.
Well, nothing is certain but I think it is inevitable. The question is if it will be this December? So I think talk of this will start again making investors jittery. Fundamentals does not seem to have changed much to prevent it. However, I do not do in depth evaluation of the fundamentals so do not trust me on this. The chart on the other hand indicates a ABCD correction of the previous 5 wave impulse. I expect this correction to end in September and then a new move to be initiated. The trigger for this new impulse could be the downgrade chatter and/or a US rate hike and/or something political? Lets watch what September brings.