USOIL-my prefered EW count

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
1469 16 26
This is my prefered EW count so far. Its supported by long term technical analysis .
I now there is an alternate count that considers one more decline and its is possible.
Lets see what happens, the market will tell soon. The invalidation level for this count is close.
Best regards.
FLT, have you ever back-tested your trades that penetrate your stops? I've been looking into many trades of mine and found that when my stop is breached the asset tends move in that direction very smoothly and with a lot of intensity. This makes sense of course due to an invalidation level being similar to a reverse breakout. I am considering taking reverse trades immediately after my stop is breached and use the stop as an entry, but afraid it will lead to over-trading. Let me know if you did any study on something like this. Thanks.
Crude is in sync with SPX for the time being - I expect another wave of SPX decline to start in a few days, and Crude should follow in my view - this will the 5th of the 5th down for Crude in the current impulse. Then we are going to see a rally we haven't seen since long )
I agree, the recent price action negates any bullish continuation in oil for me, unless it breaks above the last week's high asap.
Gold, oil and crude are pretty much in sync, against a weakened dollar.
IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
(and with equities and Asian currencies)
Hello, im considering that scenario seriously also, even my mentors from EWI have that count. Only the market will tell. One more reason for me is my long term technical analysis, so im no relying only on EW. Regards.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO FullTimeTrader
Yes, I agree with your view overall. I'm not sure about oil though, so we might have one instrument that is weak vs the dollar still.
so you think crude and gold are in 4 now? i have been vacillating between an abc or a 123 ... my gut says abc as my chart above.
webmiztriz PRO webmiztriz
that was a question for Andy...
AndyM PRO webmiztriz
this is the labelling I have, and I believe the blue (5) is still incomplete, one more swing low is required which should set a new low in the 32-38 range. The movement can be choppy and overlapping, possibly an ending wedge. One area to watch is the break below the red support line, which could well be the support for the Head and shoulders pattern, then the minimal target for the movement below the line will be approx 38, which is exactly what we want.
+1 Reply
I agree, it's more probable to see this, based on a multitude of factors, count aside.
That 4th looks done to me. The short squeeze rally is done, commercials are net short still, interestingly.
People would expect oil to rally now, with talks of war in the Middle East and whatnot, I guess that they need a good shaking around before the rally materializes.
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