I'd suggest you now wait till it retraces back to $44.50s and exit your short position, or wait to see what happens at that level as it may continue the down trend, personally I'll try the second option as if it break the $44s we'll see the $40s. For those of you who entered short at the $50s as I did, I'd suggest you now move your SL down to $47.50. I'll keep you updated.
In one of your analysis you think it'd go from 43 to 59 with no indication of retreating along the way. Here you make the case that it goes to sub $40. What made you change your mind? This call is an aggressive one, although there's definitely very strong resistance at the $51 level and do see breaking that will be a challenge. thx
Thanks for pointing that out. To be honest I keep changing strategies with oil, especially in the long run. The oil didn't follow my rules perfectly (it had to do a VERY aggressive 6-7 USD move up on 24th of September), which makes me think something's fishy here. I sure predicted the price movement very well with that call you are talking about, but I kind of don't like the oil's behaviour.
For now I am short on oil and believe it could fall to about $35 - 38 for a final re-tracement. But this is only prediction and the first call could still work and succeed.