- Trend. I find the trend on weekly charts still DOWN, although the last leg up looks very promising for the corrective rally to continue. There are two major highs to be taken out (at 50.9 and 62.8) for the down trend to be over.
- Fundamentals: the oil supply is still very high and at higher prices may be even higher, which bodes well for bears.
- Support. The 2011-2014 horizontal range between 75 and 115 arithmetically doubles to the down side at 35 (the pink lines). Although prices dipped below 35 and then found resistance there, it finally managed to break through that barrier and doesn't look like it's going to return below it. So 35 remains the key .
- Resistance. Price may find the first resistance at the blue upsloping parallel (around 43.5), then at the grey downsloping parallel. The major high at 50.9 doesn't look likely to be challenged. I believe the corrective rally should continue until it hits the blue line; if it fails though, price is more than likely to break down below 35 once again.
- Trading opportunites: stay long or enter long at some pullback, with a stop-loss order below the corresponding prior low, looking to exit at some of the resistance levels with R:R of at least 1:1.
Here's the summary of how I see the current situation in financial markets (as of Thu. 17.03.2016, 12:00 CET):
The strongest currency: AUD (currently relatively overbought; those who trade the SEK will find it even stronger);
The weakest currency: USD (recently oversold, likely to strengthen soon).
The leading markets:
- USDSEK - trending down;
- AUDUSD - trending up;
- WTI ( USOIL ) - trending up;
The developing potential entry opportunities:
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