dojitrader
Long

Bend The Rules To See An Ending Diagonal ???

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
171 9 4
But First ~~~~~
Catch an aggressive short @ 92.29 to the bottom.
(I'm an hour late publishing this short)
THEN, if price action lands in the 91.00/90.50 area will
be looking for the candlesticks to trigger a long entry.
Bending the rules needed for this pattern because waves
1 and 2 do not lend themselves to the subdivision of 3 waves
within each internally that an
ending diagonal requires. However, the wedge formation
is very enticing so hopefully the candlesticks will help to
refine the entry and stops in the area of ED overthrow
of the lower trend line.
Reward is in the 4 or 5 dollar range, if this is an ED,
they usually retrace back to the starting point.

dojitrader
2 years ago
The daily count suggests that the lack of subdivision in 3 waves within each of
the 5 waves is because this is an extended 5th wave down to 87.40 or so
where wave 5 would equal wave 1 - a common measured move.
SO, tight stops may be the way to go - with one eye towards a re entry
depending on how far the trend line over throw drops below.
snapshot
Reply
traderWgun
2 years ago
Intresting idea as always. Have you considered a flat count.
My count on this current move.
snapshot

snapshot

The reason I think that the flat idea is worth considering is that my preposted wave 2
is a sharp zig-zag correction and according to the rule of alternation, wave 4 should be a flat or a triangle.

Best of luck to you! :)
+1 Reply
dojitrader traderWgun
2 years ago
I like your count too. It would explain all that is lacking with the subdivision
in the ED idea. If there is just one more new little low, I'd be glad
to catch a C wave just as much as an ED, however, as it has already tagged
the bottom trend line - that may have been the opportunity.
Maybe a 2nd of C wave entry ?
Thanks for the charts and thoughts !!!!!!!!
Pips to us Both ~~~~~~~
Reply
dojitrader
2 years ago
Candlesticks are not being at all helpful, actually, quite bearish
with the hourly hammer being wiped out in the next candle.
This projected 5th wave has not unfolded in 3 waves but in 5
where 5 = 1 @ 92.47 so that would be a possible entry with
a tight stop looking for at least a corrective bounce.
BUT, I think the ED idea has lost it's validity.
snapshot
Reply
dojitrader dojitrader
2 years ago
92.47 was a good entry, BUT, I'm not giving it much room to the downside
so, stops are at 92.39. If this is not a 5th and the correction has started, then,
it is probably a 3rd of wave 3 with much more downside to go.
Reply
dojitrader dojitrader
2 years ago
92.47 ??? Sometimes my fingers just don't know what the hell
they are typing ~~~~~~~~ Entry was 90.47
Looking to take half off @ 91.91 and feel damn happy this was
a profitable trade while holding the balance
for a target @ 93.91.
All things considered I think there was more luck than skill on this trade.
Stops moved to 90.69
+1 Reply
traderWgun dojitrader
2 years ago
good entry. congrats!
Reply
dojitrader traderWgun
2 years ago
Thanks !!!
I think you have the correct wave count, however.
On the larger degree this looks like an ED with the
wedge shape, 5th wave overthrow and sharp reversal,
BUT, when you drill down the subdivisions are screaming
C wave zig zag of B in the expanded flat you shared.
I don't think I've ever seen such a coincidence before
so, I'm wondering how common/often this shows up together.
Reply
traderWgun dojitrader
2 years ago
I have no idea, but I haven't seen it to many times before
so it's rare IMHO. But flats are always confusing, the is no way
of knowing if a flat really is a flat until the market makes new lows
after a 5 wave advance. Only then I would say it's very hard to
confirm
Reply
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