I may be calling this a bit early, but I believe we may see a long term H&S
pattern. It would make sense economically, let's assume the oil
makers meet on Apr
17th, until then, I believe oil
will continue to push towards $50 because that's the average break even cost for a lot of producers. So until Apr
17th, we see a nice steady rise, then after the meeting takes place (or doesn't), either way I don't see a positive outcome for the meeting, a freeze that will probably not work and even if it does, we still have the problem with glut and Iran + Libya are confirmed not accepting the agreement. Once price hits $50, US shale oil
producers will probably also start to crank out more oil
and I believe we will see drastic decline in price as market is flooded again and price drops down to the $40 mark and then a possible rise as demand increases and/or supply decreases, just my 2 cents for now =) we'll see how she plays out.