Trends are like super Tankers. They rarely change course, or struggle to do one. It's obvious to the eye that the downtrend, which started from June 2015 seems to have finally be broken after 2months(August 2015) . As 'V' shaped trend reversals are quite rare, I usually expect trend reversals to follow some specific steps: 1 SX/BX =Sell Climax/Buy Climax 2.TL BO = Trendline Breakout 3. TL BOL = Trendline Breakout Rally/Selloff Limit, and then from there 4.Price would seek to test the prior Low/High=SX/BX. The testing has so many variants such as 1. LL MTR/HH MTR=Price surpasses the SX/BX 2. HL MTR/LH MTR= Price 'undertest' or fails to test the prior L/H 3. DB/DT MTR= A somewhat perfect testing. From there, price begins to follow the true definition of a trend=making HHs&HLs or LHs&LLs. However, the testing of these extremes, SX/BX and the initial BOL could have many legs , thereby producing a typical trading range(TR) which could last for many bars prior to an ultimate BO from the TR. If one could identify this stage earlier in time, the TR alone could be played for profits, prior to the ultimate BO.
I dont do EW, as I find it hard to do ;) But I'll learn it one day, and from the right guys who know the stuffs. However, this is my basic market structure, MY CONTEXT--playing with trendlines to capture price into TREND PHASE or TRADING RANGE phase-- And, it works most of the time. This is only the structure. I'm heavily dependent on reading PRICE BARS, deciphering BUYING AND SELLING PRESSURES, using individual candles formations. I must mention that I am currently heavily dependent on priceless ideas from Mr. TIM WEST, and IVANLABRIE of 'Key Hidden Levels' Chatroom on TV for my day to day navigation within this structure.
Let's see how it continues from here.
There are fundamental reasons to short the top, which make me weary (supply vs demand).
There's also a potentially nice setup off the lows.
Let's trade the reaction to NFP tomorrow.