The path here is just for "fun".
What matters is how we manage each leg and how profits are used to finance the next leg.
To start with, i would short 155 stop 158 see if it gives me a stop win opportunity..
so where? somwhere between 43 and 25 most likely.. maybe just traps.
scenarios are scenarios... it does not matter.. what matters is when/how you trade and right now: i have no position.. i wanted to short 55/57 but it seems it wont be provided in the required time frame.
I would certainly not blindly stay short because all the media agree there is too much supply.. away from supply/demand, crude is a commodity that can be disrupted at any point if something geopolitical happens.