Oil continues to be volatile at the channel bottom.
Bullish technical signs:
-Oil showed strength at the open and made a higher high from both the preceding Thursday and Friday.
-Oil back-tested the down-ward RED trendline
-Pink trend seems likely, although, traditionally this specific rally has taken the Green route
Bullish fundamental signs:
-Oil is now at a price before OPEC made cuts
-Although supply is still an issue, the last time oil was at this price, supply was growing rapidly - now it has reached equilibrium, where storage is not building, but it is not shrinking.
-Geopolitical risk has increased in the last couple weeks - see QATAR, RUSSIA, NK,
-Driving season
Bearish technical signs:
-RSI is yet to prove itself to be above either the green or the pink trendline (note that, only the closing day RSI matters, therefore, look to market close today to see where RSI ends up)
-Dead-cat-bounce is possible (longs should keep stop-losses handy or take some profit as targets are reached)
Bearish fundamental signs:
-Analysts are predicting shale output to increase more from where it is as of June 2017 - depending on driving season, this may or may not add to the glut.
-Yes... a glut still exists.. bigly
Disclosure: I am long oil with target of ~49 over course of 2.5 weeks.
Bullish technical signs:
-Oil showed strength at the open and made a higher high from both the preceding Thursday and Friday.
-Oil back-tested the down-ward RED trendline
-Pink trend seems likely, although, traditionally this specific rally has taken the Green route
Bullish fundamental signs:
-Oil is now at a price before OPEC made cuts
-Although supply is still an issue, the last time oil was at this price, supply was growing rapidly - now it has reached equilibrium, where storage is not building, but it is not shrinking.
-Geopolitical risk has increased in the last couple weeks - see QATAR, RUSSIA, NK,
-Driving season
Bearish technical signs:
-RSI is yet to prove itself to be above either the green or the pink trendline (note that, only the closing day RSI matters, therefore, look to market close today to see where RSI ends up)
-Dead-cat-bounce is possible (longs should keep stop-losses handy or take some profit as targets are reached)
Bearish fundamental signs:
-Analysts are predicting shale output to increase more from where it is as of June 2017 - depending on driving season, this may or may not add to the glut.
-Yes... a glut still exists.. bigly
Disclosure: I am long oil with target of ~49 over course of 2.5 weeks.
Comment:
Moved my lines to FXCM as TVC did not show daily volume for some reason. Will no longer update this idea - moved to another one.
Comment:
Oil is further confirming this trend, crawling into the green dotted RSI channels. Note that these green RSI channels are not yet confirmed. However, we may use the opposing point created by the consolidation period.
Staying above 44.04 today would be ideal for longs. Could short if price ends below 42.88 or 42.17, which are a ways away. 44.94 is possible today and will likely depend on API numbers or the ramp-up before they are distributed.
Staying above 44.04 today would be ideal for longs. Could short if price ends below 42.88 or 42.17, which are a ways away. 44.94 is possible today and will likely depend on API numbers or the ramp-up before they are distributed.
