Technical Analysis WTI Crude Oil
Yearly Chart:
WTI Crude trading range re-established itself between 15 – 30 JAN 21 w/ref: 30 JAN 20 marked X2 on chart.
Trading range est 1 JAN 21 – 20 FEB 21
HIGHSIDE: 61.20 USD indicated w/red solid line w/ref: 03 JAN 20 marked X1
MIDDLE: 54 USD indicated w/white dashed line w/ref: 30 JAN 20 marked X2
LOWSIDE : 47 USD indicated w/green solid line w/ref: 03 MAR 20 marked X3
Based upon fair a degree of consensus surrounding the range of estimates the cumulative effect of a 10% increase in oil prices during a one-quarter (3 month) period would be to reduce economic output by 0.2 - 1.1% over the next year from its baseline level. It would be safe to assume to a certain degree that the price of oil should not increase by more than 40% over the course of 1 year in order to prevent the economic recovery from falling in the near future (6 months). Therefore…
Trading range expected 31 DEC 21 where the following lines intersects red solid vertical line on date 31 DEC 21 (dateline).
HIGHSIDE: 83.30 USD indicated w/red solid line
MIDDLE: 74.20 USD indicated w/white dashed line
LOWSIDE : 65.80 USD indicated w/green solid line
There is also a subjective view which is held that oil wil trade @ 90 USD on 31 DEC 21 based upon the trendline indicated w/yellow solid line labeled TREND 1 and TREND 2.
On the yearly chart one can witness resistance @ 75 USD on 1 JUL 21 and 1 OCT 21 w/ref: 1 OCT 2018 indicated w/white solid line.
Once WTI Crude oil had the breakout from resistance @ 75 USD on 1 OCT 21 prices quickly accelerated to the upside one would witness a runaway gap occured which came after the first gap. On the chart indicated w/orange solid line we have the breakaway gap, the second gap called the runaway and then the third would be the exhaustion gap all of which has been established. After which a peak has been established between 18 – 29 OCT 2021 top being slow and rolling with inverted V-shape peaks to the top as characterised in the futures markets. Important to noted that 75 USD has only been tested as RESISTANCE w/ref: 1 OCT 18, 1 JUL 21 and 1 OCT 21 and has not yet been tested for SUPPORT!
Fundamental factors to watch for the week:
22nd OPEC non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on 4 November 2021
Staments made by world leaders at the The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, also known as COP26 can affect sediment.
FED Tappering
Effective policy responses are difficult because expansionary policy would exacerbate the inflationary pressures whereas contractionary policy would exacerbate the contraction in output.
It is from this POV that week 44 of 2021 we will have a correction in the WTI Crude Oil Market of atleast -10% to the 50 EMA LINE trading @ 77.00 USD
It is from this POV that week 44 of 2021 I have the perception that WTI will have a correction of atleast -10% to the 50 EMA LINE trading @ 77.00 USD
Yearly Chart:
WTI Crude trading range re-established itself between 15 – 30 JAN 21 w/ref: 30 JAN 20 marked X2 on chart.
Trading range est 1 JAN 21 – 20 FEB 21
HIGHSIDE: 61.20 USD indicated w/red solid line w/ref: 03 JAN 20 marked X1
MIDDLE: 54 USD indicated w/white dashed line w/ref: 30 JAN 20 marked X2
LOWSIDE : 47 USD indicated w/green solid line w/ref: 03 MAR 20 marked X3
Based upon fair a degree of consensus surrounding the range of estimates the cumulative effect of a 10% increase in oil prices during a one-quarter (3 month) period would be to reduce economic output by 0.2 - 1.1% over the next year from its baseline level. It would be safe to assume to a certain degree that the price of oil should not increase by more than 40% over the course of 1 year in order to prevent the economic recovery from falling in the near future (6 months). Therefore…
Trading range expected 31 DEC 21 where the following lines intersects red solid vertical line on date 31 DEC 21 (dateline).
HIGHSIDE: 83.30 USD indicated w/red solid line
MIDDLE: 74.20 USD indicated w/white dashed line
LOWSIDE : 65.80 USD indicated w/green solid line
There is also a subjective view which is held that oil wil trade @ 90 USD on 31 DEC 21 based upon the trendline indicated w/yellow solid line labeled TREND 1 and TREND 2.
On the yearly chart one can witness resistance @ 75 USD on 1 JUL 21 and 1 OCT 21 w/ref: 1 OCT 2018 indicated w/white solid line.
Once WTI Crude oil had the breakout from resistance @ 75 USD on 1 OCT 21 prices quickly accelerated to the upside one would witness a runaway gap occured which came after the first gap. On the chart indicated w/orange solid line we have the breakaway gap, the second gap called the runaway and then the third would be the exhaustion gap all of which has been established. After which a peak has been established between 18 – 29 OCT 2021 top being slow and rolling with inverted V-shape peaks to the top as characterised in the futures markets. Important to noted that 75 USD has only been tested as RESISTANCE w/ref: 1 OCT 18, 1 JUL 21 and 1 OCT 21 and has not yet been tested for SUPPORT!
Fundamental factors to watch for the week:
22nd OPEC non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on 4 November 2021
Staments made by world leaders at the The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, also known as COP26 can affect sediment.
FED Tappering
Effective policy responses are difficult because expansionary policy would exacerbate the inflationary pressures whereas contractionary policy would exacerbate the contraction in output.
It is from this POV that week 44 of 2021 we will have a correction in the WTI Crude Oil Market of atleast -10% to the 50 EMA LINE trading @ 77.00 USD
It is from this POV that week 44 of 2021 I have the perception that WTI will have a correction of atleast -10% to the 50 EMA LINE trading @ 77.00 USD