I thought 44 would support - Luckily it did almost exactly.
My target was 53/54 - Traded
There is a possibility a new move is in place but I dont think so.
I think there are bottom oscillations with foreseeable traps.
What will be the magnitude of the oscillations? at the 2009 bottom the weekly amplitude was 10 on average and oscillations were of 20usd (2 weekly amplitude).. taking this as a benchmark and using today's weekly oscillation of 5usd, i would say that the oscillation we could experience could be of 10/15usd...
With bottom 43.5, that gives us a band of 43/58 with 55 good short entry
Conclusion, the "easy " trend is over - we are back in trading mode and I think it is probably too early to believe in a new trend up (that may be wrong if 62 trades)