nmike
Short

OIL..... a "V" shape RECOVERY or a longer DIVERGENCE BOTTOM?

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
2517 22 44
I've set the RSI at 60/40 instead of the standard 70/30, by doing so we have a better view of weak price up-strength. As you can see since early 2012 the RSI failed to move above the 60 level along with low levels of Trix , see example of EUR/USD             chart posted in commentaries. RSI failed to move any higher and instead trend line support was broken and downside began. The last 3 (A)(B)(C) bottom reversals began with RSI rising above the 40 level and a shorter Trix bar, there was a fake 40 level break at (A) but that produced a reliable positive divergence reversal signal. Due to the nature of this down move I suspect we will get a “V” shape recovery without divergence just like we had at point (C).
Currently price is just above S1 support, if breaks next likely target is about $40.
nmike MOD
2 years ago
snapshot
+2 Reply
seine
2 years ago
I definitely agree with you $40 target. In fact, my options positions are based on the expectation that it will hit 40. call put spread. Fundamentally speaking, no one in the world is willing to cut the production and global growth is slowing down. I don't this oil can hold up. It can only go to $40.
+3 Reply
nmike MOD seine
2 years ago
...great!...thanks for your comment
+1 Reply
You're right about global growth and lower oil prices. Lower Oil is adding to slower growth for many resource rich nations. When will this or will it hit domestic US economy?
+1 Reply
nmike MOD
2 years ago
side note.....In cases where RSI falls too far below the 40 level the RSI 40 level cross will lag a Trix shorter bar, as you can see at point “A”…. we have a doji candle and a Trix shorter bar but RSI is still below 40, in such cases it’s best to wait for a second Trix shorter bar and a rising RSI. At point “B” we had a 3 alignment pattern: confirmed 3 candle reversal pattern, RSI above 40 & a Trix shorter bar.
snapshot
+2 Reply
littleriver
2 years ago
Hi nmike

Thank you for the chart! I am using a similar idea to follow oil. With this chart, I am looking for pivots when the long, medium, short %R indicators consolidate to a point in oversold/overbought and are followed by a crossing of a long and short RSI using Chris Moody's MTF Ultimate RSI. Using this method, we may soon be presented with our first long entry since 2009. May you have a happy holiday!
snapshot
+1 Reply
nmike MOD littleriver
2 years ago
...thanks for your comment and Happy Holidays to you too :)
+1 Reply
Trance-Man littleriver
2 years ago
So on this chart here, what is the bottom you see price-wise as I cant open it and figure out the price points due to this one being a jpg?
Reply
littleriver Trance-Man
2 years ago
Hello Trace-Man . With this chart, I am not calling out a bottom price. But, the chart does suggest the bottom is not in yet. If you would like a copy of this chart, it is at the top of my published charts.
Drilling for Oil..........
+2 Reply
26.50 that would be great!
+3 Reply
jangseohee
2 years ago
Daring call for a bottom now?
+2 Reply
nmike MOD
2 years ago
well, looks like it's going to $40 level
+1 Reply
jangseohee nmike
2 years ago
Spot on!
Boomarang, what goes around might come around
+1 Reply
nmike MOD
2 years ago
....too early to say as we are just at the beginning of the week, currently we have a bottom channel Clone HIT, if candle pattern ends like this by end of week it could very well be the bottom
snapshot
+2 Reply
jangseohee nmike
2 years ago
Clone is back!
Reply
nmike MOD
5 months ago
...at Key channel / trend line resistance
snapshot
Reply
nmike MOD
5 months ago
...instead of a "V" shape recovery we got a Divergence recovery
snapshot
Reply
IrinaMuzikina nmike
a month ago
Hello. What do you think about it?

snapshot
Reply
IrinaMuzikina IrinaMuzikina
a month ago
snapshot
Reply
nmike MOD IrinaMuzikina
a month ago
yes I agree,.....bearish divergence on weekly, likely to 25% and or trend line short term
snapshot
Reply
IrinaMuzikina nmike
a month ago
If the maximum of 51.91 a new target 21.50. Further correction.
Reply
nmike MOD IrinaMuzikina
a month ago
O.0 wow!....that's going to surprise a lot people, as for me, nothing surprises me : )
Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Billing Sign Out