tntsunrise
Short

USOIL Short the 0.618 PULL BACK

TVC:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
13710 69 136
USOIL             Short the 0.618 PULL BACK
+ Structure.

Ideal Entry is 44.49.
Comment:
snapshot

Exit this add-on short position coz it passed 45.92

Now I am waiting for the daily candle to be closed below 45.92 again
and re-enter
Comment:
snapshot
Comment:
snapshot


Sold at 45.27
Comment: GAP UP, Changed Contracts, trade stoped out.
Join Projack's Student Group:
http://www.harmonicasia.com/index/course.html
Youtube:
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLN0GYK-_EO5Z3Xzp6Sk1bmfzckpkJ5NCx
FB: https://www.facebook.com/groups/projacksg/
QQ Group: 609224828
thanks. i ll add some lots to my existing shorts of your last idea.

target? trendline around 39.50 or 1.618 extention (about same... 39.90) ?
+2 Reply
Great idea, thanks! Its very well supported by 150 and 200MA on hourly chart as well as the 50MA on the 4h.
+1 Reply
mlbo Petaryot
@Petaryot, all those moving averages are just by chance meeting the price somewhere and then being cut through like nothing or price reverses. a price chart is plotted data of price and time. price action changes the moving average not the other way round. just my 5 cents on that.
Reply
Thanks! Waiting for the Pinbar!
Reply
thank you tntsurise you are awesome like the moon last night
Reply
purpledurian masterahmed
Can short now??
Reply
Can short now?
Reply
Oh it just hit 44.49! Great!
Reply
Hi Jack,
Many thanks. I generally agree - that it will be a short eventually - but do not understand your entry point of the fibo 61,80. Why do you think this will be top?
Looking at MACD and general channel, it seems to go higher:
snapshot
Reply
UrsulaP lynersen
@lynersen, Thank you very much for this, looks like we have reached your resistance level. Hard to call, after such a strong up day yesterday where it will reverse. I can not see strong resistance lines at this stage.
However, I am happy for any thoughts and updates.
Reply
@UrsulaP, You are more than welcome - and many thanks for your comments.
Yes - totally agree with you. Very difficult to predict exact turning point. However - the 1 hour chart MACD have crossed, so believe we soon will see the downturn.
snapshot
Reply
jack breakout we short at 0.786?
Reply
hmm , what is your main reason that this bounce will back in south again .. greet
+1 Reply
Calamity LongBreak
@LongBreak, I think there's a trendline block if you switch ur chart to weekly and u can draw it
+1 Reply
Calamity LongBreak
@LongBreak, I think oil is going to very low spot like 34 or even 20 , I shorted after election last week but I didnt hold it through the weekend, want to reentry but I find its really hard. Im now regret about my desicion
+1 Reply
Be Careful , i think this would be a better entering zone in a daily chart
snapshot

+7 Reply
@Nshan, Yes, this will be a lovely retrace to short into. Thx.
Reply
@Nshan, wrong
+2 Reply
mlbo MarkSterensohn
+3 Reply
Comment removed
OncleJer PRO MarkSterensohn
@MarkSterensohn, Great argument
Reply
Comment removed
AngeloPascucci MarkSterensohn
@MarkSterensohn, Excuse but what would be a decent entry ?
Reply
NesakysiuVardo MarkSterensohn
@MarkSterensohn, Nobody is perfect. My name is Nobody!
Reply
Nshan NesakysiuVardo
@NesakysiuVardo, you are right , nobody is perfect , but the perfection is sharing your ideas so that it would be helpful for others.
@MarkSterensohn , i was wrong and it flied to 46 , how about if i was right? always be positive
Reply
Nshan MarkSterensohn
@MarkSterensohn, in future when you deal with daily charts and you study their power , you will understand this structure!!
Reply
mlbo Nshan
@Nshan, looks nice.
+1 Reply
UrsulaP Nshan
@Nshan, Thank you very much, looks good to me. I was expecting residence and made some money of my shorts I have entered at the top. At this stage I think it is difficult to call where to enter again. Lets just wait and see. But this chart makes sense, thanks again.
Reply
@Nshan, it looks like50% ,but theres 38.2% which is now , and 61.8% which even higher price than the one in your chart
Reply
Nshan Calamity
@Calamity, 61.8% would be another perfect shorting level
+1 Reply
Tomorrow ;) !
+1 Reply
dont know but it seems to have broken out and going much higher. Think I would wait for 48 to 50
Reply
Went short at 45. Should have waited for confirmation after pin bar with a bearish candle but didn' t and got stopped out. Looking for another short if it double tops at 45.85 right at structure.
Will use 2618 entry this time.
Reply
Stop reached :(
Reply
hmm break previous high ! should we short now?
Reply
well, better luck next trading idea. hope you all just lost maximum 1-2% of your account, right?
Reply
@mlbo, -6% :(
Reply
@mlbo, -15% :(
Reply
mlbo mlbo
@mlbo, guys! that is too much. this was definitly not a trade setup that has perfect highest properbility to work out. not saying that jack is not a good trader, but you guys risk more % than he on that trade definitly. for him it might be ok to have in worst case 10 times a loss with that setup even in a row. he might end up wth a 10% loss of total account. losing 6% in that razrus would have less than half left and cornhub would be out of the game.

if you guys have a small account and feel like "uff, with 20$ earnings on each trade my account will never grow and it is not worth the work" you might want to take yourself a pen and paper or an excel sheet and look what a 1000$ account is nicely growing when only risking 2% each trade but always reinvesting the won money.

it is a bit of future dreaming and you have to be careful about it, but an average account size gain of 2% per trade over a time where you do 100 trades (only! remember there might be winners and losers but you will lose max 1% and aim for a gain of more than 1%, and you have entrys where you may expect high properbility...so average +2% only!) you will have a 7000 trading account! you guys manage go do 100 trades in maybe 1 or 2 years? is this only a dream or is it possible?

but you dont think that way because you cant imagine. thats a human problem. you think of your lousy 1000$ account and think that after the same 2% average 100 trades you have 3000$. thats right but you have more than double when reinvesting (kind of exponential growth).

by the way: after 200 trades you may find yourself with a 50000$ account (or with a 5000$ account if you stick with investing 1% of 1000 only and taking the money out of your account for cinema....)

consistent trading! 200 trades with average 2% gain. is it worth trading it for maybe pessimistic 5 years and have 50k in the end when starting with a 1000$ account only?
consistent trading! 200 trades with average 2% gain. is it worth trading it for maybe pessimistic 5 years and have 100k in the end when starting with a 2000$ account only?
consistent trading! 200 trades with average 5% gain. is it worth trading it for maybe pessimistic 5 years and have 25 million dollar account (!) in the end when starting with a 1500$ account only?

so why risk 15% per trade? are you in a hurry? ;)




+5 Reply
@mlbo, can you continue with your scenario? If you have a $1000 trading account, how much are you saying you would have invested in this trade, if we are to go by your theoretical scenario? Thanks!
Reply
mlbo toothless
@toothless, not quite sure what you are asking for.

given you have a 1000$ account and want to risk no more than 1% of your 1000$ for each trade.
means you dont want to lose more than 10$, right? (because 10$ is 1% of 1000$)

knowing that you only want to lose a maximum of 10$ you now can calculate your stopploss, but that is not a good idea. because your stopploss should not be dictated by the max amount of $ you want to lose. your stopploss should be placed at a price level where the initial idea is no longer valid. even more accurate: you want to place it at a price level where your idea is no longer valid from your expectations / timeframe / time you like to hold the trade. all this basically is part of what i just above called "initial idea".

now lets have a deeper look. initially in this tradingview trading idea mr. jack's idea was to sell at the 0.618 fib retracement of that last downmove. this as a strategy should tell us that this idea is no longer valid when the last high (at 45.92, the 100% or 0% of the downmove depemding on how you like to express it....) is broken to the upside. why? logic, when a retracement retraces more than 100% of the move it is no longer a retracement, right? simple. so you want your stopploss level placed some 10-20 or something pips above that top / behinning of the downmove you are messuring the retracement of.
this placement of stopploss would allow the price to form a bearish doubletop and go down without taking you out. attention: jack uses a way tighter stopploss level right above his box he painted in the chart, but that is way more risky because price may easily first go to 78.6% retracement and then turn down again. find your strategy. i stick for the example with the big top at ca. 46

so:
stopploss could be 46.30
entry as discribed by jack maybe 44.49
difference is ca. 1.8 points.

from that i can calculate that i may open ca. 0.06 contracts (at least that is what my broker's (ayondo) unitsize is here.
good at ayondo is that this calculation is automatically displayed in the order form. i cant really see why not every broker and software does that.
anyone knows how this can be implemented in metatrader, please let me know!!
(another broker that had this kind of automated profit / loss preview in the order form is the old webtrader version of etoro but i CANT recommend these guys. Stay away! But maybe wanna practice with their (or ayondo's) demo account and the order form...

back to topic: you now may lose 10$ on that trade
jacks first target is 43.79 which would give you a profit of some 4.60$
if you think or your stragegy says that this first target is your only target then you dont want to enter the trade. your reward is only half your risk. stay away.
if your expectations are around 42.20 (reasonable, its the old low before retracement started) you may earn some 13.70$.
in my opinion still not a trade you should do because risk to reward is nearly the same. better have at least a reward expectation twice or triple of your risk.

hope that helps!

writing that down takes a bunch of time but in daily routine with a proper order form or a selfmade excel sheet for the calculation it takes seconds...

+4 Reply
@mlbo, I agree that risk control is important , but 2% isnt very clear. is it 2% of your total forex account money or 2% of your account money X leverage?
Reply
mlbo Calamity
@Calamity,

risk 2% of your total forex account money.

you have a trading account of 1000$ then risk 20$ (2%) max.
the leverage has nothing to do with that.
if you have a small account like 1000$ you need a broker that allows you to open trades in micro lot size or smaller (ayondo allows that...)
you cant really trade 1 lot or 0,1 lot wehen your max loss can not exceed 20$, right?
Reply
mlbo mlbo
and you cant manage your trades well enough. always good to open 2 or 3 smaller trades at once which allows you to take partial profits on the way.
Reply
@mlbo, yes becoz of leverage, and its confusing when u not count the leverage, becoz everytime u open a position, the stop loss is depending on the leverage and distance only. did u just read some book says 2 %?
Reply
mlbo Calamity
@Calamity, leverage has nothing to do with that. calculate for yourself the following:

you open a sell trade in fantasy-oil.
your opening price is 1000 and your stopploss level (invalidation point of trading idea) needs to be at 1200.

every 1 digit against you costs you 1$, meaning that at a price of fantasy-oil of 102 you have a open loss of 2$.
every 1 gigit in your direction gives you a profit of 1$, meaing at a fantasy-oil price of 97 you are 3$ in profit zone.

placing this sell trade ( 1 contract worth 1000$) without any leverage (x1) you need to invest 1000$ in that one trade to own the fantasy-oil contract.
and as mentioned above you lose 1$ with every digit this fantasy-oil price rises.

placing this sell trade (again 1 contract worth 1000$) with a leverage of x10 you only invest 100$ in this one trade (which allows you to open other trades while this one is open) but still as mentioned with every digit the price of fantasy-oil moves against your direction you lose 1$.

placing this sell trade (again 1 contract worth 1000$) with a leverage of x100 you only invest 10$ in this one trade (which allows you to open other trades while this one is open) but still as mentioned with every digit the price of fantasy-oil moves against your direction you lose 1$.

in this example (no matter what leverage) you will lose 2% ( = 20$) of your 1000$ trading account when fantasy-oil price hits 1020, right?

if your broker would only allow you to trade x1 (without leverage) the moneymanagement and risk would be easy to see and to handle but with x10 or x100 the inexperienced trader is able to open a 100 contracts trade of fantasy-oil (investing all 1000$ he has) and if price now moves just from 1000 to 1001 he/she would lose 100$ and if prices goes to 1020 he/she would lose 20 * 100 dollar = 2000$ = margincall.

copy that?
+1 Reply
@mlbo, This does not always work out that way. Often currency or index may move in opposite direction of 1-2% to take out stop losses before continuing on in their planned direction
Reply
mlbo TheWave
@TheWave,

again. i am not talking about a loss of 1-2% of the currency / oil value (which would be 50 - 0.5(1%) = 49.5 when oil was 50 in the beginning)!!

i am refering to a 1-2% loss of your whole trading money in your account. e.g. you deposit 1000$ to fxcm broker and 1% of that is 10$. simple.
10$ are 10$ and 1% of 1000 is 1% of 1000 and the leverage is not of any interest in that. you simply dont want to lose more than 10$(1%) or maybe 20$(2%) of your 1000$ account.

from your accptable loss of 10$ (1%) you calculate the lots / minilots / microlots trade size.

"Often currency or index may move in opposite direction of 1-2% to take out stop losses before continuing on in their planned direction" yes, the market seems to do so but you have to live with that. if market takes you out and reverses then your stopploss level was wrong or a little bit to tight. but the big guys know exactly where the small fishes place their stopps. before a big move down you will very very likely see a spike up that is exactly killing all the other small sell trades because the big guys like to ride the bus alone why should they accept other passengers when it is eas for them to kick you out of the bus before the journey starts? they dont want to share their icecream and their softdrinks with you ;)
+1 Reply
mlbo Calamity
@Calamity, in fact all the text i wrote above is very clear i think.

i wrote for example: "knowing that you only want to lose a maximum of 10$ you now can calculate your stopploss,...." (that is refering to a max loss of 1% at a 1000$ account).

so by "1% plus leverage of x 100" you could refer to your investment in the trade. but that is not the risk and maximum loss per trade.

1% of 1000$ account is 10$ and you dont want to lose more on one trading idea. full stop. basta. ende. fin.
(or maybe 2% ... i think that is ok too)


+1 Reply
@mlbo, thank you very much! great explanation, and appreciate the time you took to share. mahalos!
Reply
mlbo toothless
@toothless, you are welcome. all this i came across over and over again and it is so easy and so logical but on the other hand so hard to understand.

regarding the 2% max loss rule (which is discussable of course...):

example:
you lose 10% of your account in a trade - you need to make 11% in the next trade so be at initial level again.
you lose 20% of account in a trade - you need to make 25% the next trade to be +/- 0 again.
you lose 50% of account in a trade - you need to make 100% in the next trade to.....
you lose 90% of account in a trade - you have o make 900% (!!!) to be at the initial account size again.
evil right?!

the smaller the % of loss the easy to recover.

100 times a 1% loss and out of money.... how likely is this to happen in a row ?
10 times a 10% loss and out of money .... much more likely, right? dont do that, dont risk 10% of your trading accoutn in just one idea!!!
+2 Reply
@mlbo, If leverage is x100 then 1% move is $1000 which would wipe out an account with a 1% stop loss. You would need an account with no leverage to apply those trading principles.
Reply
mlbo TheWave
@TheWave,

that may be right. still this is a good moneymanagement. show me a proper money management that works on a 1000$ account and with a broker where you have to trade 0.1 lots minimum. nearly impossible. small trading accounts are always tend to be overexposed and underfunded.
Reply
mlbo mlbo
@mlbo,

i have one little experimental tradinga account where i just recently entered a buy gbpjpy at 128.16
i considered to idea/ reason for the trade to be invalidated at a level 124.40 (the bigger low) and given that i was only able to open a buy trade of 0.0625 lots.
very very small trade size but now is 137.22 and my account gained ca 2%. find a excel sheet that calculates this for you.
you may wanna google "myfxbook prostion size calculator"
Reply
@mlbo, I think it depends on your trading styles. for me i use 3.5% stoploss and 20 leverage, my stoploss is 5-15pips(usd) only, my currency is aud. if you use other currencies the stoploss would be definitely different %. so it is quite complicated. i have my own calculator and i calculated them b4 i enter any trade in different timeframes. and 10 leverage allows u to use 2x stoploss of mine, if we using same strategy. however, there are ppl using different strategies, their stoploss isnt fixed, but usually on previous high/low, or even no stoploss. they use low leverage and have much higher win rate with this strategy, since if they are right, 99% chances they will not be stopped out. but if you use tight stoploss you maybe stopout a lot. did u see the difference? and thanks for ur posts.
Reply
mlbo Calamity
@Calamity, yes. true. on one of my accounts i use a strategy on eurgbp with a fixed sl of 80 pips. but these trade ideas jack posts need to have their "personal" stopploss levels and not a fixed one.
Reply
A different idea, maybe people can consider it,,
this might be a very nice  place to go short

still some small room with Crude


and video to understand the movement of oil, hope you like it
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lptK87nxiJQ
Reply
Oil will test 39 very soon.
Reply
Ha ha ! U used tf small it errors! I'm can used D1 up!
Reply
Spx500 short? Dax30 short?
Reply
Calamity mehmetgdogan
@mehmetgdogan, SP will prob go 2208+ ithink , i draw a small 4 hour timeframe triangle and calculated it . i think the best AB=CD short prob somewhere around 2248,it's like 10year +timeframe
Reply
Jack , did u see the yesterdays russian announcement said they will freeze the oil production? I think it might go higher and pin bar maybe fake this time
Reply
Thanks for always sharing your views! Took the short side at 46 today (using 46.17 as the 0.618 retracement), and am using the same TPs. Really appreciate how your share your thoughts and work.
Reply
Short at $46 thanks Jack
Reply
I think we should have short at 46.41,the 1.13 reverse extention,which means false breakout.
Reply
Hi Jack,
Have you put your SL around 45.60 area ?

thanks
Reply
thats bad!
Reply
I am not suggesting short oil at these levels. 4 hrs chart look quite bullish soon.
Reply
Hi Jack, a bit an unexpected jump up on oil today? Any thoughts?
Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
France
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Sign Out