nmike
Short

HOW TO SPOT major MARKET BOTTOMS with EXTREME FEAR

INDEX:VIX   CBOE Volatility Index
1931 55 9
When the CCI (100) bars are rising and above "0" that indicates rising FEAR.As the bars get shorter the FEAR diminishes.The fear will usually stop at or just above the KC(40). When the VIX             overshoots above the KC band that signifies EXTREME FEAR and market BOTTOMS just ahead. >>>NO FUNDAMENTAL DATA ANYWHERE ON THIS CHART.
wpd
4 years ago
Learning a lot, thanks for the highly intelligent charts...:-)
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TradeVulture.com
4 years ago
Extreme fear, aka, resistance in many cases seen here.
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">>>NO FUNDAMENTAL DATA ANYWHERE ON THIS CHART."
Nice note:) It is always interesting to me to see if pure technical analysis works.
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nmike MOD charttrader
4 years ago
Believe it or not PURE TECHNICALS DO WORK, as long as you know how to analyze charts properly. Have you ever noticed when a company has a spectacular REPORT and the stock goes down. According to fundamentals the stock should go up.
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nmike MOD
4 years ago
mid week update>>no sign of fear.Instead of guessing when the fear will come, let's just follow the CCI BARS, bars are not rising.
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nmike MOD
4 years ago
>>>FEAR RISING.....BUT,, the CCI(100) is still below MID- POINT....
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nmike MOD
4 years ago
>>>>> FEAR lower last week, longer CCI(100) negative bar,
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nmike MOD
4 years ago
>>>>CCI well below mid-point....NO FEAR
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nmike MOD
4 years ago
HVI(tsx). is a symbol I follow on the TSX exchange, it's the INVERSE of the VIX. This instrument is very noisy and volatile so I use a RENKO chart.Box size is .20 cents. I hope soon TradingView will have a RENKO option.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HVI.TO&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p40967388665
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nmike MOD
4 years ago
>>>VIX weekly update....candles below 40MA, CCI(100) well below mid-point..NO FEAR
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nmike MOD
3 years ago
VIX WEEKLY UPDATE. Slight uptick in the VIX but CCI still below mid-point
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nmike MOD
3 years ago
.....ALERT>>> BIG GREEN CANDLE and CCI(100) above "0"
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are you suggesting the VIX is moving in extreme fear territory?
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nmike MOD QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
right now the fear is rising but not in extreme territory yet. I have no clue if it will get to the extreme, I don't have a crystal ball, candle stick and CCI will show EXTREME FEAR if and when it occurs(see notes on chart)
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My Crystal Ball and gut thinks this is not the big one... just anticipating extreme panic in a few more months.
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nmike MOD QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
don't forget to keep track of this one: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HVI.TO&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p40967388665
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nmike MOD
3 years ago
CCI back below "0"...good news for the bulls...
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nmike MOD
3 years ago
FEAR going down the CLIFF
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nmike MOD
3 years ago
WEEKLY UPDATE: no fear, no down cliff.....for now
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nmike MOD
3 years ago
WEEKLY UPDATE: no fear, no down cliff.....for now
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nmike MOD
3 years ago
WEEKLY UPDATE: no fear, no down cliff.....for now
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nmike MOD
3 years ago
WEEKLY UPDATE :CCI well below "0".... no fear, no down cliffs....for now
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nmike MOD
3 years ago
same comment as last week......
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denn112
3 years ago
Major Market BOTTOMS? its only the TOPS you've spoted here mate, no bottoms.. or am i mistaken?
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nmike MOD denn112
3 years ago
hello, that's a good question. The VIX does not work well the other way around, I mean the VIX is not a good indicator for spotting market tops because it does not show EXTREME moves when markets are moving up.That's why they call it the FEAR index and not the GREED index.
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denn112 nmike
3 years ago
i would think you are spotting the highs (Tops) looking at the price, not the Lows (Bottoms), or does this instrument Top & Bottom differ from the usual forex, say EURUSD...
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nmike MOD denn112
3 years ago
this INDEX is related to the the S&P 500. not related with currencies

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMVV4tQ6pm4
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denn112 nmike
3 years ago
oh :-) good insightful video. thanks pal
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I disagree with the video. Depends on which pair. EUR/USD is highly correlated with the S&P so the VIX is going to have an effect.
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nmike MOD
3 years ago
weekly update.....only one positive CCI bar since May 2012 .REMINDER: The VIX does not work well the other way around, I mean the VIX is not a good indicator for spotting market tops because it does not show EXTREME moves when markets are moving up.That's why they call it the FEAR index and not the GREED index.
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Maybe we need to develop a greed index.
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nmike MOD
3 years ago
...CAUTION....BIG JUMP IN VIX.....
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nmike MOD
3 years ago
update...we had a fear spike last week but the VIX finished the week below the green line and the CCI stayed below "0"
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nmike MOD
3 years ago
-----update.......FEAR is still low but a small advance from low levels.Last market low was at that isolated positive CCI bar and VIX near the upper KC band.
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nmike MOD
3 years ago
-----update.......CCI(100) still below mid point and VIX just below KC mid point.Last market low was at that isolated positive CCI bar and VIX near the upper KC band.
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nmike MOD
3 years ago
....... FEAR update.......CCI(100) well below mid point.
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Starting to turn over though. Divergence on the daily chart
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snapshot


CCI (50) on weekly
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Databased QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
Not sure if everyone has seen this but http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/ is a fantastic measure of fear/greed. Only wish they included better/exportable charts
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nmike MOD Databased
3 years ago
@Databased, I've seen this before, thanks for sharing
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