nmike
Short

HOW TO SPOT major MARKET BOTTOMS with EXTREME FEAR

INDEX:VIX   CBOE Volatility Index
1971 55 9
When the CCI (100) bars are rising and above "0" that indicates rising FEAR.As the bars get shorter the FEAR diminishes.The fear will usually stop at or just above the KC(40). When the VIX             overshoots above the KC band that signifies EXTREME FEAR and market BOTTOMS just ahead. >>>NO FUNDAMENTAL DATA ANYWHERE ON THIS CHART.
Learning a lot, thanks for the highly intelligent charts...:-)
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Extreme fear, aka, resistance in many cases seen here.
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">>>NO FUNDAMENTAL DATA ANYWHERE ON THIS CHART."
Nice note:) It is always interesting to me to see if pure technical analysis works.
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nmike MOD charttrader
Believe it or not PURE TECHNICALS DO WORK, as long as you know how to analyze charts properly. Have you ever noticed when a company has a spectacular REPORT and the stock goes down. According to fundamentals the stock should go up.
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mid week update>>no sign of fear.Instead of guessing when the fear will come, let's just follow the CCI BARS, bars are not rising.
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>>>FEAR RISING.....BUT,, the CCI(100) is still below MID- POINT....
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>>>>> FEAR lower last week, longer CCI(100) negative bar,
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>>>>CCI well below mid-point....NO FEAR
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HVI(tsx). is a symbol I follow on the TSX exchange, it's the INVERSE of the VIX. This instrument is very noisy and volatile so I use a RENKO chart.Box size is .20 cents. I hope soon TradingView will have a RENKO option.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HVI.TO&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p40967388665
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>>>VIX weekly update....candles below 40MA, CCI(100) well below mid-point..NO FEAR
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VIX WEEKLY UPDATE. Slight uptick in the VIX but CCI still below mid-point
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.....ALERT>>> BIG GREEN CANDLE and CCI(100) above "0"
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are you suggesting the VIX is moving in extreme fear territory?
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nmike MOD QuantitativeExhaustion
right now the fear is rising but not in extreme territory yet. I have no clue if it will get to the extreme, I don't have a crystal ball, candle stick and CCI will show EXTREME FEAR if and when it occurs(see notes on chart)
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My Crystal Ball and gut thinks this is not the big one... just anticipating extreme panic in a few more months.
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nmike MOD QuantitativeExhaustion
don't forget to keep track of this one: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HVI.TO&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p40967388665
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CCI back below "0"...good news for the bulls...
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FEAR going down the CLIFF
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WEEKLY UPDATE: no fear, no down cliff.....for now
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WEEKLY UPDATE: no fear, no down cliff.....for now
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WEEKLY UPDATE: no fear, no down cliff.....for now
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WEEKLY UPDATE :CCI well below "0".... no fear, no down cliffs....for now
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same comment as last week......
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Major Market BOTTOMS? its only the TOPS you've spoted here mate, no bottoms.. or am i mistaken?
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hello, that's a good question. The VIX does not work well the other way around, I mean the VIX is not a good indicator for spotting market tops because it does not show EXTREME moves when markets are moving up.That's why they call it the FEAR index and not the GREED index.
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denn112 nmike
i would think you are spotting the highs (Tops) looking at the price, not the Lows (Bottoms), or does this instrument Top & Bottom differ from the usual forex, say EURUSD...
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this INDEX is related to the the S&P 500. not related with currencies

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMVV4tQ6pm4
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denn112 nmike
oh :-) good insightful video. thanks pal
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I disagree with the video. Depends on which pair. EUR/USD is highly correlated with the S&P so the VIX is going to have an effect.
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weekly update.....only one positive CCI bar since May 2012 .REMINDER: The VIX does not work well the other way around, I mean the VIX is not a good indicator for spotting market tops because it does not show EXTREME moves when markets are moving up.That's why they call it the FEAR index and not the GREED index.
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Maybe we need to develop a greed index.
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...CAUTION....BIG JUMP IN VIX.....
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update...we had a fear spike last week but the VIX finished the week below the green line and the CCI stayed below "0"
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-----update.......FEAR is still low but a small advance from low levels.Last market low was at that isolated positive CCI bar and VIX near the upper KC band.
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-----update.......CCI(100) still below mid point and VIX just below KC mid point.Last market low was at that isolated positive CCI bar and VIX near the upper KC band.
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....... FEAR update.......CCI(100) well below mid point.
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Starting to turn over though. Divergence on the daily chart
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snapshot


CCI (50) on weekly
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Databased QuantitativeExhaustion
Not sure if everyone has seen this but http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/ is a fantastic measure of fear/greed. Only wish they included better/exportable charts
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nmike MOD Databased
@Databased, I've seen this before, thanks for sharing
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