Are we seeing DISTRIBUTION on a QUARTERLY timeframe?

I think this is a great chart and study of the application of Wyckoff. I don't claim to be an expert as only studied a few publications; however, I diligently apply it as I find logic more applicable to "technicals."

1st I'm not sure I would over-react; but longs should be aware that we may be witnessing DISTRIBUTION on a QUARTERLY timeframe. Prices are attempting to remain above resistance created in 1999.

If price are unable to hold this $70 level it could very well confirm my bearish distributive thesis as it would create a "last point of supply" (LPSY). If prices were to reject this level bulls still have a "safety net" as the long term trend has created support defined by the lower trendline of the ascending channel around $59. If this level is violated I would recommend protecting any long term profits.

A breakdown of this longer term support would create an "oversold" opportunity allowing buyers to re-enter with less risk; likely returning prices back within the ascending channel .

Good Luck!
Interesting. I must admit I find it not easy to distinguish between re-accumulation and distribution. To me, the SCLX you have towards the end can also be LPSY. Clearly there is supply but my wave volume looks quite different from yours (here again for your convenience: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6M1Ys32TM9haVlzU01TZ1FpLXc/view?usp=sharing). I basically use two indicators. One is straight like yours, the other subtracts down volume form up volume. They need to confirm each other. Additionally I see monthly Demark Exhaustion near the lows. The bullish key reversal last month and the other things all spell buying for me. The SCLX was a washout in my opinion. It created a higher low and held the trendline of the prior lows (i use log chart for long term price movements). We should put in a higher high and not take out the lows from November. Since this is a fairly wide range, I would still go long with a stop below last months low. P&F chart projects quite high (too high in my opinion).
On the fundamental side they should benefit from easy money policies, low unemployment and low transportation costs.
my bias toward distribution is my interpretation of the all time high (ATH). It appears to be an "upthrust" as the rally failed. I also believe the ATH was made on low volume and very low cumulative buying; therefore an UTAD. I agree re-accumulation vs distribution is very challenging. I believe we're seeing some reaccumulation that will result in LPSY. I certainly see what your explaining. Thank you for keeping me honest.
agunther jamison.gaddy
Hm, interesting. I find it hard to believe that a stock would be in distribution for so long. Why would there still be weak hands after such a long time. A stock that pays a strong dividend such as this will not be held short for so long either. With the higher highs and higher lows, I think strong hands should have sold it much more aggressively. Also in 2009 it barely moved down. Frankly its a bit of a toss up for me after seeing your chart :) Love the work you post. Very insightful!
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