The week ahead on Gold...

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
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Weekly view: From a weekly timeframe perspective, the trend on Gold             is still firmly south, and will remain that way in our opinion until price closes above the weekly trendline extended from the high 1488.0.With regards to last week’s action, however, we can see that despite the volatility seen from below weekly supply at 1223.1-1202.6, the end result barely saw any change in this market as price closed at 1177.93 - only 98 pips below last week’s close at 1177.91. In the event that further selling takes place this week, price could very well challenge the weekly demand area once again at 1130.1-1168.6.

Daily view: The daily timeframe on the other hand, shows that last week’s volatility eventually saw price break below daily demand at 1178.3-1185.8, and attack another daily demand area seen below it at 1159.4-1170.8 (located just within the weekly demand at 1130.1-1168.6).

4hr view: Friday’s sessions saw price aggressively sell off and slam into a small, yet clearly resilient 4hr demand area at 1168.6-1170.8 (located just within the daily demand area mentioned above at 1159.4-1170.8). The bounce seen from this 4hr area shows promise in our opinion, since there is really very little that we see stopping Gold             from continuing to rally up to test the 4hr supply area at 1185.1-1182.2.

This 4hr supply area is key for us today, since this was likely the ‘decision-point’ if you will, where pro money initially ‘decided’ to push the market south. We have set an alert just below this zone, since we want to watch how price action behaves around this area. In the event that we see lower timeframe bearish strength entering the market here, we may look to take a short. It’s very difficult to pin-point a specific target at this point since the approach to the zone could form an area of demand.

On the flip side, should prices close ABOVE this 4hr supply zone , then we could potentially have a massive buying opportunity on our hands, let’s go through this step-by-step…

1. A break above this 4hr supply area likely clears the path for buying up to around 4hr supply seen at 1207.3-1203.1.
2. A move north is supported by daily timeframe demand at 1159.4-1170.8
3. Notice that the 4hr supply just mentioned above is located just within weekly supply at 1223.1-1202.6. Therefore, even though we’re currently trading below weekly supply at present, there is effectively still room for a move north.

With regards to entry above this 4hr supply zone , we would not buy the breakout. Instead, we’d patiently wait to see if prices will retest this area of supply as demand, then begin looking for lower timeframe confirmation to enter long.

Our current buy/sell orders:

• Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

• Sell orders: Watching for lower timeframe confirmation above 4hr demand 1185.1-1182.2 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1185.50).

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