2ndSkiesForex
Long

Bullish Opportunity in Gold @ Critical Support Zone

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
303 8 5
Finding a short term base between 1212 -1221, Gold             has bounced off this support zone 3x now with each bounce hitting 1250. We will watch for a buying opportunity in this zone, watching for the bids to hold, targeting 1250 and potentially 1267 with tight stops below the zone. A daily close below 1200 targets 1180.
isomorph
2 years ago
the more often a SPPT/RSST zone gets tested, and the weaker it gets usually. given the major news event on WED, i'd bet on a spike through the SPPT zone to hit sub-1200 SPPT levels, then a major bounce back up and activation of the double bottom on weekly to eventually form the right wing of a gartley on weekly. will publish chart in the next few minutes.
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2ndSkiesForex isomorph
2 years ago
Hello Isomorph. It is not always the case the more a level gets tested, the weaker it gets. That is more likely true during with trend setups, such as a resistance level being attacked in a bull trend, or a support level being attacked in a bear trend.

However, most bull moves do not turn on a dime, and often times require an 'accumulation' process which would include the support level getting tested several times.

Sometimes the more it gets tested (and fails to break) the stronger the counter-trend forces go.

We shall see.

I have no intentions of taking a trade on an NFP spike, and I'm guessing most would not recommend this either. I'd be open to taking one before which I feel could play out, or one after, but am not keen on holding one through NFP (not my style as a whole).

I personally do not trade Gartley's so not much to comment on there. But i'm certainly open to taking a long around the 1180 level if this fails, depending upon the price action context and how it gets there.

But time will tell, and tomorrow should cause some interesting moves in the price action.

Cheers
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isomorph
2 years ago
well... well... well... ;) i was going to say 'i told you so', but we are still in the box and am starting to wonder whether you weren't right after all. one thing is for sure, there are way too many shorts and very few longs.... i'll keep watching that bottom ST. all the best.
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2ndSkiesForex isomorph
2 years ago
Hello Isomorph,

Hmmm, this is an interesting response.

From my experience, only Ego tries to say 'I told you so'. One trade will never define anything about you/me, your/mine success or performance. 1000's of trades will. Its the same % risk on any one trade, so a loss on this one is the same .5%.

From my 13+ years experience, a trader is best served by 'thinking in probabilities'. Meaning just like a poker hand, if I take that hand 1000x, and make money over that 1000x, then that is an edge, and I'll play that hand now. It is no different in trading.

The probabilities to me suggest if I take this trade 100 or 1000x with a favorable enough R:R, then that is an edge I'll play over time. I may or may not make money this time (no idea for sure at this moment), but that is not my over-arching goal as I know I'll lose trades. That over-arching goal is to make money over those 1000 hands/trades, and let my edge play out over time, which may or may not work for me on this hand.

Try to see the forest from the trees, but I cam certainly hoping you make money today and continue to trade successfully.

Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
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pradafx isomorph
2 years ago
Nothing confirmed yet mate. Just noisy spikes. We are still in the support zone. There is a high possibility to push Gold up. Buyers may eventually take the control sellers. In that case I agree with 2ndskiesforex
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2ndSkiesForex pradafx
2 years ago
The level eventually folded so onto the next trade.

Kind Regards,
Chris
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isomorph
2 years ago
ok chris, given your response i will not write 'i told you so'. ;) it was just using it as an expression (fully aware of its silliness in the context of trading as you pointed out). you read too much into it. of course you are right in terms of edge and probabilities over time. wasn't trying to diss you or anything, especially when considering my share of asinine blunders. hope this clarifies the tone of voice. cheers and i hope we get that double bottom confirmed. we'll see. all the best.
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2ndSkiesForex isomorph
2 years ago
Cheers mate. Appreciate your candor.

Best-
Chris
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