ICmarkets

Our take on gold this week...

Short
FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
13
Weekly gain/loss: +$12.2
Weekly closing price: 1279.1

The yellow metal rallied for a third consecutive week after bouncing beautifully from weekly demand coming in at 1194.8-1229.1. This move could encourage further buying into the market and pull the unit back up to the two weekly Fibonacci extensions 161.8/127.2% at 1313.7/1285.2 taken from the low 1188.1 (green zone).

Looking down to the daily timeframe, nonetheless, we can see that the supply area at 1288.1-1278.3 was brought into the action on Friday. What’s interesting about this zone is that it’s glued to the underside of the above noted weekly green zone. So, the bears could very well make an appearance from here this week. Another important point worth mentioning is the possibility of further buying. Should this occur (as there’s room on the weekly to push slightly higher), the potential AB=CD daily bearish pattern (see black arrows) that terminates a tad beyond the Quasimodo resistance at 1307.8 (positioned within the upper limits of the weekly green zone) may complete.

Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report echoed a disappointed tone in the market, consequently sending the US dollar lower and the yellow metal higher. The move, as you can see, broke through May’s opening level at 1270.5, and has opened up the path north to the H4 supply registered at 1288.1-1284.2. This area has certainly caught our eye since it is located within the upper limits of the daily supply and also positioned within the lower limits of the green weekly zone. Therefore, we believe it will, at the very least, bounce price lower.

Our suggestions: We will, dependent on the time of day, look to short the above said H4 supply at market, with stops placed at 1288.9.


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