fxtrader66

Is gold consolidating for a big move?

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
351 23 1
To be very honest, with the US debt ceiling I am sitting on the sidelines with gold             because if can go either way and fast. I do not want to be caught on the wrong side of a trade over the US debt ceiling with political statements coming out of Washington.

Price seems to be in a triangle and I prefer to trade the breakout in either direction it goes.
Why not, position buy stop and sell stop?
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I believe there could be extreme volatility with the US debt ceiling, where as if I was on the wrong side of the trade, I could get stopped out much lower/higher than my stop was set due to slippage in volatile markets. During major news annooncements and political events that can move the market hundreds of pips in minutes, I prefer to see the reaction first then make my trade.
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alex.a fxtrader66
So, it means bounce-back-time is your choice? I found a lot of people like that... Hummmm.
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alex.a alex.a
Man - it update so slowly... I wish I could see with updated data...
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alex.a alex.a
elpurto93, what is your opinion about NY Market, Gold went up or went down... It created V within 3 hours...
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NY wanted their fill to buy at a lower level. In an uptrend, look at asia open, europe open, and ny open, price will pullback for a long entry, and its just the opposite in a down market, each market will pullback for a short entry, each market wants their fill into the trend. Gold found support at ny open at the 61.8fib from last weeks low to last nights high, this is very typical for gold to find support at its 50% or 61.8% fibs after finding resistance or support. Look where gold found resistace today, the 50% fib from last nights high to ny low. IMO i think this is a reactionary bounce after selling off hard today where price could retest todays lows or go lower to test possible daily TL currently at 1319 to 1318. If price gets down to 1319 1318 and finds support gold could haed back up to the 1350 range of resistance. Strong break of 1318 on the daily chart imo price could test last weeks lows at 1305. Like I said in the description, I will trade the breakout of the triangle or if the US debt ceiling is resolved, once these conditions are met I will go back looking for intraday trades.
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alex.a fxtrader66
I am learning which means I confess I didn't understand 100% when I read what is written. But, I will try my best, though -
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alex.a alex.a
(in uptrend) which means during Jun 2013 to around August 2013, for example?
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alex.a alex.a
In another words, usually during the uptrend, the market starts with falling for about an hour and then, rebounds ~ So, when it goes downtrend, it will do the opposite?
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alex.a alex.a
In the downtrend, the market tends to start with rising for about an hour and then falls ~
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alex.a alex.a
>> Gold found support at ny open at the 61.8 fib from last >> weeks low to last night high.
I applied the fibo. last week low which was Sept. 24 15:00 1305.62. on last NY's high 1344.08
But, it doesn't show today's low in the 61.8 fib support. It passed even 50... What am I understanding wrong?


















































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alex.a alex.a
Sorry, something wrong.... So many empty lines... I didn't do this on purpose. Again, I am deeply sorry for this ugly look. ><
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no worries, Its all good
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my fib is from 1305.67 sept 24 to 1351.95 the spike up at market open this week. It pierced the 61.8 but held it on a close.
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alex.a fxtrader66
It appears to be but 1351 was the today's AUSSI Time when the market opens after weekend. It actually went up and pushed down - It was very strong and strange. Why would they do that time? When the spread is so big, especially what was in a hurry to do at that time? Curious to death -
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alex.a alex.a
I'm confused. at my fib, if I change 100 to 1352.51 - the spike, then 61.8 = 1334.60. this price is in the beginning of the long rod that went down to 50 and the next 38.2 I wish I could send you the picture so that I don't have to write and you don't have to read this ... ><
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alex.a alex.a
I don't understand "held it on a close" because when it was closed in an hour chart, it closed below 50 fib (1329.07), I think we are looking at the different minute chart.
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There is really no time constrains on pullbacks to enter the trend. What I mean on entering at different maket opens, my time cest, asia likes to offer an entry into the trend around 03:00 cest, europe 08:00-10:00 cest, NY 14:00-16:00 cest. However, this is not written in stone and anything can happen, so its always good to have a good risk reward plan before entering into any trade, for its a given we all will have a losing trade.
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alex.a fxtrader66
Once I thought how about trading only during the asian market? because it was more predictable than any other although it doesn't move much. So, a bit higher number of lots. What is your opinion about this?
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Yes this is the daily trend, which is up and the weekly and monthly trend which are down, however, to continue with the daily uptrend price has to go higher than the august high, and continue HH and HL. I believe gold is at an inflection point where the market is deciding wheather to continue the daily trend and go higher or continue with the weekly/monthly trend which is down.
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Price seems to be consolidating in a triangle, whatever direction it breaksout, gold could retest its breakout point. If you noticed my trades last week were break of resistance then enter long on testing former resistance as support. As you put it "bounce back time is my choice"
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alex.a fxtrader66
Where is the triangle? 1352 as an edge and red-trendline and left black trend line. This triagnel are you talking about?
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the top of the triangle TL starts at 1375.13 post FOMC high sept 19 to last nights high 1351.95 rayed out. Bottton triangle TL starts at 1291.54 sept 17 to 1305.67 sept 24, price is coiling up and trading in a tighter range. When it breaks out it could be a powerfull move
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