LastBattle
Long

Quick update in gold..

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Quick update in gold             ..
Price action have been holding up ridiculously well for the past month despite the record pace of rallying in the stock market.

SPY:

However, the divergence between USDJPY             continues which does not bode well for stocks.

USDJPY:


On the lower timeframe perspective of gold             (4~ 12 hour), it does seems that we have made a higher high price here, however I will not rule out of a possibility of a re-test of $1190 support level .
On what seems to be a head and shoulders pattern here, I highly doubt there will be any follow-up given the spike in VIX             on Friday's closing. I believe that the second leg down on stocks may start to develop soon which should push gold             further up coupled along with the divergence developing in the USDJPY             pair.

Look out for a quick spike towards $1400 /oz area.
However I wouldn't entirely consider this rally in gold             to be a bull market. It was badly oversold and was already overdue for a bounce with the falling wedge that have been building for more than 4 years anyway.
In other words, there is a possibility that this is a counter-trend rally in a bear market for gold             .


Silver             in the meantime looks pretty compelling, pretty much abandoned by the mainstream. At $1400/oz gold             , I'd trade all my physical holdings into silver             .

XAGUSD:

Gold silver             ratio:
Comment:

Strong accumulation here.... I doubt gold will touch 1190 for re-test of support.

$1420 incoming.
Trade closed manually:

Dollar looks bouncy here :D watch out. I've closed my position manually, and hedged my physical gold holdings in the short timeframe.
Comment:

Trendline test..
What about the daily bearish divergence that is there when we get a new high?
Reply
LastBattle Yahia.Awes
I don't see a daily bearish divergence here, if any it would be cancelled out with a new highs.

Current price action tells a lot, given the past 2 months of sideways. The market simply doesn't allow it to even retrace.
Reply
Yahia.Awes LastBattle
I see a cleary daily bearish div being build. The indicator is lower than the previous high, with possibility for the price to spike above the high of 2016. From there we have a lower low indicator and a higher high in price.
Reply
Yahia.Awes Yahia.Awes
This could be one of the scenario's
Reply
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