FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
268 9 11
Taking a short shot here. I like the risk
Comment: 1hr cracked the diagonal TL.
Trade closed: target reached: 1318
Hello, Lanmar. Excellent setups at your account. Really great talent in a trading. Don't you allow huge growth at the next week? Seems like 1480-1520 is a possible level. Don't you think so?
+1 Reply
Lanmar PRO FreshOilTrader
Thank you very much for your comment. I retain the possibility of gold breaking out in either direction. Though I think the probability may be to the upside after one impulse move lower. I plan on going long at my target for my short, which is between 1317-1320. At that level the risk will be considerably lower.
+2 Reply
Dear Lanmar!

Thank you too for your comment and for your detail explanation. I have checked all of your setups and I impressed how clear and exact they are. Your feeling of market is really superb and I would just dream to have similar one. So, let me give you my fresher vision, maybe you could let me know where I am wrong. First of all let put attention to the DXY cause it high connected with the GOLD last time. It is very very similar that there is 3-3-5 Elliot Flat here. Look yourself.

If such vision is true, we are behind 3d wave in C. As you know 3d wave is extremelly intensive. It is although telling here cause it engaged with Long Trendline since May. So, just a question for me if the 2nd wave has already completed or if it is still active till the 95-96 area.

Returning to the Gold, I am interested additionaly to see DSI (Daily Sentiment Index of Jake Bernstein). As I know it is very low now, which means that more than 2/3 of crowd is in the shorts now. If DXY setup is true, sure it is good confirmation for a Long of Gold (till 1480-1520 I personally hope). Moreover, at this stage shorters have blocked in the position and I don't see the reason to let them close it and return for longs.

Let me summarize. 1. DXY is going to drop. 2. DSI shows short preference for a crowd. 3. High volatility is estimated unexpected, so be very carefully while trading Gold.

P.s. Because long shortterm cycle has started at BOJ rate decision (21th of September) and it were vacations at Japan at the end of last week, I estimate high volatility at Gold at Monday (BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda speach).

Good luck in all of your trades. Have subscribed for your blog and will like your new setups for sure.
+1 Reply
Lanmar PRO FreshOilTrader
Great observation. I can't answer whether the second wave has completed - I am no expert in elliot wave theory and my application of it is extremely limited/specific - applied only after the completion of the third wave and must correspond with my priority signals. Nevertheless, I'm moderatley bearish on DXY with exactly your price points, which leads me to believe the probability for gold is to the upside in the intermediate term (the chart published above is short term). I would love nothing more than to be wrong and see gold fall well below 1300. I'll shoot you a PM about that.

Thanks again for your insight and thank you for following!

+1 Reply
Whats foreseen bottom level of this strategy
+1 Reply
Sorry, I don't understand your question or statement
sulbas Lanmar
What is possible bottom level that you expected according to ur below chartwork
+1 Reply
My targets are always at the end of my arrow. So in this case 1317
sulbas Lanmar
Thank you
+1 Reply
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