ICmarkets
Long

Anyone think a rally north will be seen on Gold soon?

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
330 1 3
Weekly view: From a weekly timeframe perspective, the trend on Gold             is still firmly south, and will remain that way in our opinion until price closes above the weekly trendline extended from the high 1488.0. Current price action, however, shows that price is trading in ‘no man’s land’ between weekly supply at 1223.1-1202.6 and a weekly demand area seen at 1130.1-1168.6.

Daily view: Friday’s fakeout which saw prices break below daily demand at 1178.3-1185.8 and rebound from another daily demand at 1159.4-1170.8 (located just within the aforementioned weekly demand area) clearly attracted attention as prices rallied higher on Monday. Assuming that the buyers can continue with this tempo, we may see price challenge the newly-formed daily supply area seen at 1215.0-1204.5.

4hr view: The open 1178.4 saw an immediate bullish reaction, which as you can see, tested and eventually closed above a 4hr supply area coming in at 1185.1-1182.2.

Given that we’re seeing very little resistance on the daily timeframe until 1215.0-1204.5, and the weekly timeframe is also showing room for prices to increase within its current range (see above), our attention will be mostly driven to longs today.

The recent break above the aforementioned 4hr supply created a 4hr demand area seen in green at 1180.4-1183.5. This area of demand is where we believe the overall decision was made by pro money to initially push above the 4hr supply area. Coupled with the fact that the push above this area was relatively aggressive suggests that there may very well be unfilled buy orders left in this 4hr zone. Therefore, should prices reach this area of 4hr demand today; we’re going to be watching the lower timeframe structures for an entry long here. The following reasons explain why we believe it’s best to wait for lower timeframe confirming price action:

1. There could be a fakeout – nothing worse than have your stop taken, then move in your originally anticipated direction.
2. Price could completely ignore this 4hr demand area and continue down to the overall origin of the up move around 4hr demand coming in at 1168.6-1170.8 (located just within daily demand at 1159.4-1170.8).

First take-profit targets will obviously be dependent on how price approaches the current 4hr demand zone. Ultimately though, we’re going to be looking for a move up to the 4hr swap level 1199.1, positioned just below the daily supply area mentioned above at 1215.0-1204.5.

Our current buy/sell orders:

• Buy orders: 1180.4-1183.5 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1179.9).

• Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).



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