4xForecaster

$XAU vs. $USD: Probable Interim Decline; Bulish Target | #Gold

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
5332 137 51
2 years ago
Predictive/Forecasting Mode calling for interim retracement/reversal.

Background Geo             overlay is mixed, with internal (black lettering) geo             offering a possible cycle completion at its 1-4 Line per Mr. Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Wave pattern (www.WolfeWave.com), whereas a larger (grey lettering) would comply with Predictive/Forecasting Model at foreground, yielding the following bullish target:

- TG-Hi = 1268.78 - 14 MAY 2015


snapshot


In contrast to Mr. Bill Wolfe's pattern, this Geo             does depend upon internal Elliott Wave principles and geometry-based rules (e.g.: Tunneling, Geo-Anchor, Off-Set Rules), which are mere refinements of the Wolfe Wave using simple confirmatory methods, all of which have been freely shared and explicated at length in my TradingView.com discussion threads.


OVERALL:

A smaller Geo/WW appears to have completed. Caveat here is that its 1-4 Line would require a steep decline in price. A larger similar geometry would allow an ectopic Point-5 to salute the independent Predictive/Forecasting Model ruminating at higher pastures with tail wagging at 1268.78.

In terms of sequencing, Model expects:

1 - Price decline to/along the small 1-4 Line, then:
2 - Rallying into the TG-Hi hills.


INVALIDATION:

Adverse excursion > 1.414 above smaller Geo's Pt-5 should invalidate this sequencing.


Stay tuned,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


-----
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David Alcindor

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-----

.
a year ago
Comment: 07 NOV 2015 - Following is a cut/paste of "Chart Update" and "Tech-Note" comments made over the course of the thread.

I am separating the comments from my frame-by-frame analyses for ease of retrieval and clearing the chronology.

Since the Predictive/Forecasting Model is calibrated at the synthetic 4-hour frame, this is where most of the subsequent analyses will reside.

The cut/paste charts will start from this summer (07 JUL 2015). Although admittedly, there has been a lot of lower and high-frame analyses that have provided a panoply of targets using geometries, I am starting right were the geometry failed and the Predictive/Forecasting Model remained intact and in force, as it still is at this time.
a year ago
Comment: 07 NOV 2015 - Following is a cut/paste of "Chart Update" and "Tech-Note" comments made over the course of the thread.

I am separating the comments from my frame-by-frame analyses for ease of retrieval and clearing the chronology.

Since the Predictive/Forecasting Model is calibrated at the synthetic 4-hour frame, this is where most of the subsequent analyses will reside.

The cut/paste charts will start from this summer (07 JUL 2015). Although admittedly, there has been a lot of lower and high-frame analyses that have provided a panoply of targets using geometries, I am starting right were the geometry failed and the Predictive/Forecasting Model remained intact and in force, as it still is at this time.


===========================
07 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

Tech-Note:

Price has breached the 1-3 Line off of Point-2, negating the geometry. Predictive/Forecasting Model remains intact - See following chart:

snapshot


If a correlation between the WW or Geo and the Model re-emerges, I will be pointing it out asap.
----------
David Alcindor


07 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
---------
$XAUUSD: Watch for this potential geometric pace, down to 1131.98 at 1.618 #fibonacci extension:

snapshot


$XAU #gold $AUD
----------
David Alcindor


10 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$XAUUSD remains indecisive; Favors decline to defined level before rallying to 1201.70:

snapshot


$XAU $USD #gold $AUD $GLD
----------
David Alcindor


16 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
---------
$XAUUSD moving closer to 1.618 #fibonacci = 1131.98; Expect bullish entrenchment there:

snapshot


#gold $XAU #euro $USD $AUD
----------
David Alcindor


17 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$XAU hit forecast #fibonacci extensn; Expect 5' validation with reversal to Pt-4 level per Geo's OffSet Rule

snapshot


#gold
----------
David Alcindor


12 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$XAUUSD continues to rally from reciprocal symmetry; Remains intent on 1201.70 per Geo's Off-Set Rule:

snapshot


$XAU $GLD
----------
David Alcindor
a year ago
Comment: 21 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$XAU stomped at 2-4 Line (grey) + Geo's Off-Set Rule at Pt-3 (blue) ; Floor at 1092.11; Still intent on 1268.78:

snapshot


----------
David Alcindor


25 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$XAUUSD continues to adhere to forecast: Same 1092.11 floor. Same 1268.78 target:

snapshot


$XAU #gold $JNUG $NUGT $GLD $AUD
----------
David Alcindor


08 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:

Watch out for this reciprocal ab = cd symmetry, as price continues to follow the dashed-arrow forecast path:

snapshot


----------
David Alcindor


11 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:

$XAUUSD continued to fall as forecast; Nears 1092 support; Bullish outlook:

snapshot


$XAU #gold $GLD $SLV $AUD $CAD $CHF
----------
David Alcindor


16 SEP 2016 - Chart Update:

Price remains true to forecast pathway; bullish target also intact:

snapshot


----------
David Alcindor


18 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:

$XAUUSD continues to follow forecast path closely; Price stomped at larger Geo's 1-3 Line:

snapshot


$XAU #gold $GLD #euro
----------
David Alcindor


24 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:

Still tight and up-close with forecast pathway. Now BACA > 2-4 Line:

snapshot


----------
David Alcindor


02 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Consolidation has carved a higher-low; Recent high at 1156.65 may release bulls' gate:

snapshot


----------
David Alcindor


09 OCT 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:

$XAUUSD price action remains tethered to forecast line; Bullish outlook:

snapshot


$XAU $GLD #gold $AUD $CAD $CHF #forex
----------
David Alcindor


14 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price remains in line with forecast, reached upper resistance; Bullish forecast remains intact and in force:

snapshot


----------
David Alcindor
===========================
a year ago
Comment: 07 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

At this time, price validated the lower "Bullish Entrenchment". This is the level that I had expected would get validated from prior test. Consider this done.

snapshot


Invalidation would come as a breach of the lowest structural low (circa point-d of the recprocal ab = cd.

Note also how this adds further credence to a probable decline in $USD crosses and #USDollar Index, which I just posted.

David Alcindor
a year ago
Comment: ADDENDUM - Tech-Note:

From @kmk.msp who posted this complete Wolfe Wave cycle yesterday:

XAUUSD


Excellent.

David Alcindor
a year ago
Comment: 10 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price remains tethered within the forecast 1092/1082 bullish entrenchment zone - Bulls stopped bears and continue to push back:

snapshot


David Alcindor
a year ago
Comment: 18 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As price breached through the range, it is now validating the pre-defined reciprocal ab = cd symmetry ... Now, look for RSI patterns to reiterate and aid in signaling a rally:

snapshot


David Alcindor
9 months ago
Comment: 05 MAY 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note: Target Hit

This has been a long, tedious undulating price action, which finally hit the 1268.78 target defined last May 2015:
snapshot


This level was finally reached, defining a high-probability reversal level, with most immediate target defined at the 11.71.08 level, approximating the 50% Fibonacci value.

Whereas higher-highs remain possible, bears are expected to come in force here. Invalidation of this expectation should occur if and once price BACA > Point-2 of the geometry.

Best,

David Alcindor
9 months ago
Comment: 05 MAR 2016 - ADDENDUM:

Worth noting here is the actual geometric completion of this larger system, justifying the adverse excursion and lower-lows formed prior to price heading towards the Predictive/Forecasting Model's target, which stood higher than the geometry's own 1-4 Line target:
snapshot


As the 1-4 Line target has been hit as well, this adds further credence to the probability of a price relaxation to the downside.

Best,

David Alcindor
8 months ago
Comment: 18 MAR 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price is defining a protracted consolidation pattern, slowly outlining a probable Wolfe Wave/Geo in this process.

As usual, Point-4 remains the most fluid element in the developing geometry. However, following are a series of technical hallmarks worth heeding, as their divergence focus on a narrow probable target range, with a predictive/Forecasting model pointing to 1307.61:
snapshot


You will notice that this 1307.61, defined by the Predictive/Forecasting Model aligns quite tightly with two 1.618-Fibonacci extensions, as illustrated in the following chart:
snapshot


Additionally, but not as precisely, a large reciprocal ab = cd symmetry would complete in the same vicinity, as illustrated in the following chart:
snapshot


OVERALL - As indicated in the large DAILY chart, the bearish target remains pending at 1171.08. However, an interim geometric completion remains pending as shown in the following chart, based on a probable geometric completion in the Wolfe Wave/Geo and internal ab = cd, reinforced by a Fibonacci confluence at 1.618.

What ensues is a probable price pathway, as illustrated in the following chart, where the dashed lines define the probable extent of resistance and support range that would carry price first to a geometric completion at the bullish target of 1307.61, then repel price to a support at 1171.08:
snapshot


Best,


David Alcindor
5 months ago
Comment: 22 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Watch for possible attainment of the 1370.87 handle. However, bears remain in charge overall:

snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster
5 months ago
Comment: 30 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:

Watch for 1370.87:

snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor, CMT #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
5 months ago
Comment: 05 JUL 2016 - Chart Update:
5 months ago
Comment:
snapshot


Look for significant resistance building up.

David
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
Yahia.Awes
2 years ago
Hi David,

Like always a very good setup, I'm seeing the same, below my chart(s).

4H TF, what I'm seeing is:
1. Bearish WW
2. Bearflag
3. Big resistancelevel
4. Possible going out the triangle to sweet-area:

Two things might happen it might bounce from sweet-area or just now. The fluorised green arrow is the one that is more likely because of the heavy resistance there. Also the darkgreen is highly possible, because of the Head and Shoulders pattern which looks finished and it is on a high timeframe.

snapshot


Daily TF
1. A big symmetry going on there.
2. It looks like we are going south since we topped at 1900.
snapshot


Weekly TF
A complete look:
snapshot

+1 Reply
19 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
---------
$XAUUSD continues to roll from 1-3 Line; Expect carving or Point-4 plot; Predictive Model target remains pen:

snapshot


$XAU
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+5 Reply
Yahia.Awes 4xForecaster
2 years ago
I love what I'm seeing David!
+2 Reply
28 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$XAUUSD completed its inner Geo (black); Defines potential Pt-4 of larger Geo (blue); Bullish:

snapshot


$XAU $USD $NUGT
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
2 years ago
still carving?
Reply
02 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$XAUUSD: Backgrnd geo is preliminary. Foregrnd Model's BULLISH target remains intact, in force:

snapshot


$XAU $NUGT #gold
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
millie PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Is the model still bullish after bouncing off 1162 today? Thanks.
Reply
Sokun millie
2 years ago
i think the prelimanary geo hasnt finishe then to 1265
+1 Reply
Sokun Sokun
2 years ago
1268
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sokun
2 years ago
Yes. Still unfolding.

David
+2 Reply
09 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

There is a slight alteration in the WW/Geo as I have extended its 1-3 Line leftward and use that level as a Point-1. This was done is it represents the best accommodation of the "Tunneling", although there is nt that much of a change compared to the original Point-1 placement, and it ultimately has no bearing on the Predictive/Forecasting Model's bullish target.

Of late, Point-4 is likely to be the lowest point reasonable for the geometry to persist as a WW/Geo.


snapshot



With $USDJPY teetering towards a decline, as well as most USD pairs signaling a $USD weakening, I would keep this $XAUUSD under watch, as it is currently mulling a rally above the recent two bar highs. Once this occurs, it could be enough to send it into an impulsive mode, in terms of Elliott Wave morphology.

Best,


David
+3 Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
2 years ago
should we be watching the eur usd to hit 1.08?
+1 Reply
Sokun Sokun
2 years ago
will you notify when we hit the low on the prelimanary geo?
Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sokun
2 years ago
Hello @Sokun - At this point, I am not certain it wants to return there. It already hit that level once, and the decline in $USDJPY speak bearishly of the USD strength, which should reflexively help the $EUR remain somewhat afloat at the very least.

David
+2 Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
2 years ago
so it could take off today?
+1 Reply
Sokun Sokun
2 years ago
and hit 1268 sometime in july maybe?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sokun
2 years ago
@Sokun, I don't do market timing. I especially do not take time into consideration into my trades. Price gives space in a chart, and it takes space in a chart, so the geometry is what comes out of it, and I use that in the Geo, However, price does not give time.

It only takes its own.

David
+3 Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
2 years ago
thank you
Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
2 years ago
so its on the verge of being vaccumed twords 1268?
Reply
Sokun Sokun
2 years ago
in general are the prelimanary geos a low probabilty like in this case?
+1 Reply
Sokun Sokun
2 years ago
the dotted line extending down past point 4?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sokun
2 years ago
@Sokun - Based on the "Offset Rule" I developed as part of the refinement over the WW, it depends on whether a Geo was formed, and whether a 5-prime or a 5-second was attained.

The OffSet Rule states that:

1 - If price reverses from Point-5, it carries the highest probability of attaining the 1-4 Line

2 - If price reverses from Point-5', it carries the highest probability of attaining the price level corresponding to Point-4

and

3 - If price reverses from Point-5'', it carries the highest probability of attaining the the price level corresponding to Point-3.

Trading is a system of triaging among probabilities. One should only reason through highest probability set-ups and cast out any lesser ranking probabilities.


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sokun
2 years ago
@Sokun - I use WW/Geos as a way to give an alternate visual support to the targets defined by Predictive/Forecasting Model. The highest probability patterns I have encountered so far has been Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Waves ("WW") and the refinement on construction and trading rules I have built upon the WW (I now cal the "Geo").

I only post WW/Geos as an physical alternative to the Model's target. It has worked well, but it does NOT mean that price will complete a WW/Geo whenever or before it hits the Predictive/Forecasting Mode's targets.


David
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sokun
2 years ago
@Sokun - Not sure I understand what you mean by "vaccumed".

David
+2 Reply
HamedAghajani PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
:) I can see a lot of excitement and hope behind this terminology.
+1 Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
2 years ago
thank you for your insights
Reply
10 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
-----------
$XAUUSD remains on track to 1268.78 target, as per Predictive/Forecasting Model's forecast:

snapshot


$XAU #gold #euro $USD
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
18 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$XAUUSD still rallying as forecast; Predictive Model's target @1268.78 remains intact:

snapshot


$XAU $USD $AUD $CAD $CHF
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
18 JUN 2015 - Tech-Note;

As the USDollar fell relatively hard yesterday (17 JUN 2015), I expect that the decline my extend in a measured way, but that interim rallies might occur, the net move being bearish for the $USD and bullish for the precious metals and associated commodity-sensitive Forex pairs ($AUD, $CAD $CHF and $NZD to some extent, as well as the $EUR as an antipodian element).

David
+1 Reply
HamedAghajani PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Thanks for the update. I am long both AUDCHF (few monts), and AUDUSD (recently). Hope the gold help them to get to their targets. Frustrations is about to overcome my determination ;) - Hamed.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO HamedAghajani
a year ago
Watch for 0.70107 adverse excursion target on the $AUDCHF - Low probability, but still lurking.

David
+1 Reply
18 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$XAUUSD: Expecting push-back at 1204.23 as $USD recovers from shameful beating; $XAU remains bullish:

snapshot


$GLD #euro
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
a year ago
Can it drop down and touch the 2. 4. Line as a probability On its way to 1268? Thank you!
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sokun
a year ago
Hello @ Sokun - The lowest price is allowed to decline without negating the current geometry is down to the parallel of the 1-3 Line, originating off of Point-2:


snapshot



However, this geometry tends to keep price close to the 2-4 Line, so I would definitely look for this possibility of a decline down towards these defined parameters,

David
+2 Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
a year ago
With the Usd on its way to 96.50 on th dxy xua could be dipping down to where you mention?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sokun
a year ago
Hello @Soun - Seeing that a DAILY chart has 6-times the magnification of a 4-hour chart, then: Yes, this DAILY chart of $XAU has the space to decline in the way the 4-HOUR chart in DXY could rise, without necessarily causing $XAU to break below the lines drawn in it.

David
Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
a year ago
Thank you. Does this scenario also more probable with xpt moving twords its tg low?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sokun
a year ago
@Sokun - The analysis I post is usually based on a high-probability scenario (i.e.: if there is a quantitative target, such as TG-1, TG-2, ... etc. or a qualitative target such as TG-Hi, TG-Hix or TG-Lo ..., then the probability is HIGHER than if there was no "TG" designation - Plus, I would not bother you guys with any less probability targets, ... well, unless we are dealing with a moderate probability event, such as the development of a Wolfe Wave or Geo.)

Overall, the probability values I offer are either LOW, MOD, or HIGH.

LOW PROBABILITY scenarios are such standard patterns as Scott Carney's (except the Shark and 5-0 patterns, which are of MOD level). So, the worst being the Gartley, and the best being the Crab in this category, which occur in inverse frequency.

MODERATE PROBABILITY scenarios would occur under pattern development, such as Scott Carney's Shark and 5-0 pattern (the former being a "quasi-pattern, since it starts with point "zero" and completes only at point-c (0-x, a, b, c), in contrast to all other patterns, whose point of departure is at "x" and complete at point-d (x, a, b, c, d).

In this "MOD PROBABILITY" category, Fibonacci matrix is worth including, especially the significant levels, such as 0.386, 0.500 and 0.618, as well as extensions: 1.414 and 1.618.

Finally, in this "MOD" category, I would include such geometries as the Wolfe Wave and the Geo. I will always tend to post these, simply because they have the best ability to coincide with the direction of price which is confirmed by my Predictive/Forecasting Model. Since the Model does not have a physical form, except posting TG levels, then I use these higher geometries (i.e.: "higher" relative to lesser probability patterns) as a way to illustrate what price COULD do. If price were to not follow these geometries, it still remains true to the Model. So, the geometries are the best illustrations I can offer, and the Geo is a refinement I have offered as it correlates best (but holds no relationship, other than "following" the Model by price action) with the Predictive/Forecasting Model.

HIGH PROBABILITY events are those that my Predictive/Forecasting Model generates, of which there are 2 levels of probability: The numerical targets (TG-1, TG-2, ..., TG-n) are of highest probability of attainment, whereas the qualitative targets (TG-Hi, TG-Hix, TG-Lo, ...) are of lesser probability, but as a group are the highest compared to the other targets mentioned above.


OVERALL, This graduation of probabilities is the result of my own empirical findings. If it does not say "TG", then I would rarely post a chart, unless it carries a MOD level of probability, such as the development of a Wolfe Wave or a Geo, which can occur on their own without the Predictive/Forecasting Model ever being triggered.

Best,


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
a year ago
Extremely fascinating. I enjoy your educational insights on the platform that you have created. Thank you so much for sharing.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sokun
a year ago
@Sokun - You are very welcome. I am glad you do.

David
+2 Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
a year ago
Do you think there is any more downside at this point?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sokun
a year ago
Hello @sokun - The analysis, forecast, directional bias has not changed:


snapshot



As written before on 18 JUN 2015:
----------
"Hello @ Sokun - The lowest price is allowed to decline without negating the current geometry is down to the parallel of the 1-3 Line, originating off of Point-2.

However, this geometry tends to keep price close to the 2-4 Line, so I would definitely look for this possibility of a decline down towards these defined parameters, "
----------
(Source: See "18 JUN 2015 - UPDATE" thread above).


David
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
@Sokun,

If you compared the 2 charts, one from the 18 JUN (11 days ago) and the one from today, you will see that the 2-4 Line was given a significant structural relevance:


$XAUUSD - 18 JUN 2015:
snapshot



$XAUUSD - 29 JUN 2015:
snapshot



I would continue to follow the 1-4 Line as a significant technical element in your analysis and expectation, whereas the dotted line originating from Point-2 is merely the transposed 1-3 Line, which defined the level below which the geometry ceases to matter,


David
+1 Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
a year ago
I see. The 2 4 line is significant. And above your comment says 1 4 line do u mean 2 4 line as in what u mentioned at the beginning of comments?
+1 Reply
Sokun Sokun
a year ago
Thank you. This is neat!
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sokun
a year ago
Yes, occult market geometries are pretty neat, I agree.

David
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sokun
a year ago
@Sokun - Yes, you are correct. It should read:

"I would continue to follow the 2-4 Line as a significant technical element in your analysis and expectation".

Thank you for pointing this out.

David
+2 Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
a year ago
And at somepoint what you call morphology will take place moving price with some built up energy?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sokun
a year ago
Not sure what you mean about energy.

Simply stated, price wil move within a specific geometric confinement, regardless of news, opinion or beliefs. It moves like a tractor, pushing miscreant cows aside and dragging price within a prescient area which is not time dependent, not energy dependent, and not fundamentally mindful, except for the fundamental geometry which it submits to.

David
+2 Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
a year ago
thats pretty wonderful.
+1 Reply
Sokun Sokun
a year ago
Must be right on the 1 4 line?
+1 Reply
Sokun Sokun
a year ago
. It should b 2 4 line above. My mistake. Lol.
+1 Reply
Sokun Sokun
a year ago
Since xua has dipped below 2 4 line will tg 5 b more likely than tg hi 1268?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sokun
a year ago
@Sokun - This geometry is allowed to be distorted all the way down to the large dots, which simply represents with transposition of the 1-3 Line off of Point-2, so that it can (rarely) develop as a channel.

If this remains the case, then Point-5 remains a valid level of attainment as far as the geometry goes. However, the Predictive/Forecasting Model, which has nothing to do at all with the background geometry and stands alone at the foreground of my analyses, remains valid and still probable.

More importantly, the invalidation of the geometry (be it Wolfe Wave or Geo) cannot and will not invalidate the Predictive/Forecasting Model, since they have no relation to one another, except for the ability of the geometry to parallel - but not condition 0 the Model.

David Alcindor
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
ADDENDUM - @Sokun:

Here is price not rising off of the current low, but not transgressing the lower (large dots) mark. Effectively, this entire system remain an intact Wolfe Wave or Geo:

snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
a year ago
Wow. Ok. Thats great and really neat. Thank you!
Looks like up from here then?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sokun
a year ago
@Sokun - Yes, if the pattern is true. If not, we got tricked.

David
+1 Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
a year ago
Lol. Tricked. That would be a first then? Lol
Reply
Sokun Sokun
a year ago
Must be pretty close to moving twords tg hi. Are the metals waiting for the usd to reverse?
Reply
Sokun Sokun
a year ago
Any new comments?
Reply
07 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

Tech-Note:

Price has breached the 1-3 Line off of Point-2, negating the geometry. Predictive/Forecasting Model remains intact - See following chart:


snapshot



If a correlation between the WW or Geo and the Model re-emerges, I will be pointing it out asap.


David
+3 Reply
07 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
---------
$XAUUSD: Watch for this potential geometric pace, down to 1131.98 at 1.618 #fibonacci extension:

snapshot


$XAU #gold $AUD
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
a year ago
Is that likely 2 happen today or soon? Maybe a bounce first?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sokun
a year ago
@Sokun - As I have mentioned several times before, I am not familiar with any system that can provide specific timing.

The predictive/forecasting model I use provides targets (i.e.: probable levels of attainment). In addition, the geometries I ascribe to the chart provide a probable pathway. Timing is not a consideration, nor something I would be capable to define with any degree of precision, or even relevance for that matter.

David
+1 Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
a year ago
Ok. Cool. Sorry. But high likey hood that it hits 1131 at this point after breaking the line?
+1 Reply
Sokun Sokun
a year ago
Sorry. After breaking the 2 4 line there is a high prob of hitting 1131?
Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sokun
a year ago
@Sokun - Yes, I would definitely consider a break below the most recent structure-low (@1142.59) as a commitment to the 1.618 extension level.

ALWAYS look for your 1.414, which is a level where most 1.618 fake-out could occur, especially in a fast moving market ... Therefore, if you are considering a LONG position, a partial long at 1.414 is never a bad idea, whereas a stop-loss below the 1.618 (i.e.: 1.618 + spread + 3 to 5 pips or points) would be a reasonable thing to do.

REMEMBER that, although the LONG-TERM chart looks at much loftier levels of attainment (see WEEKLY chart posted before), a prudent thing to do in addition to above long strategy and stop-loss placement, is to aim for price level corresponding to Point-4 (@1201.70).


David
+2 Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
a year ago
Wow. Thank you. I will digest this info. Thank you so much!
+1 Reply
Sokun Sokun
a year ago
So using point 4 is important
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sokun
a year ago
Yes, four is important in these geometries: It demarcates the difference between the Mr. Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Wave and my Geo, where the Off-Set Rule defines the probability of attainment of that numerical marker.

David


PS: Anecdotaly, four is also an ancestral reference (demarcating night from day).
+1 Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
a year ago
Ok. Thank you. Makes it more understandable. So point 4 or 1204 is 1.414? And should be used as a marker to place trades from and also determines the trend as in this case when it broke the 2 4 line also 1.618 can short to then go long from?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sokun
a year ago
@Sokun - I am not sure what you are seeing.

The only extensions I have drawn are pointing down, such as the 1.618 extension in the chart. In contrast, Point-4 stands at the opposite of it, and I have not drawn any correlation with any Fib extension as far as Point-4 is concerned.

snapshot



David
Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
a year ago
Ok. Must be my wording. I think im beginning to understand how its played out. Was trying to understand for next time about how the geo broke.
+2 Reply
Sokun Sokun
a year ago
Is there also a probability after 5' is hit for further decline to a 5''?
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sokun
a year ago
@Sokun,

The probability of the geometric development goes as follows:

1 - HIGH = Point-5'

2 - MOD = Point-5

and

3 - LOW = Point-5''

In other words, a geometry is most often developing into a 5-prime position, followed by a 5, followed by a 5-second - This is based on my own empirical experience, so I have no exact numbers. Only these frequencies.

David
+1 Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
a year ago
Ok. Thank you! Any possibility of making some comments on xag if you have a chance. Thank you for taking the time to communicate its extremely helpful in order to process your wonderful work!
+1 Reply
10 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$XAUUSD remains indecisive; Favors decline to defined level before rallying to 1201.70:

snapshot


$XAU $USD #gold $AUD $GLD
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
16 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
---------
$XAUUSD moving closer to 1.618 #fibonacci = 1131.98; Expect bullish entrenchment there:

snapshot


#gold $XAU #euro $USD $AUD
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
a year ago
Thank you David! If it goes to a 5" at what frequency or number would we be looking for?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sokun
a year ago
Hello Sokun - I am not sure I understand your question. What do you mean by frequency?

David
+1 Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
a year ago
When it hits 5' if it is going lower to a 5" what number or price would it be?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sokun
a year ago
@Sokun - Simply use the 2-4 Line and place it over Point-1 - Once price validates it, I would look for a return to the level corresponding to Point-3.

David
+1 Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
a year ago
Cool. This is fun! Thank you for taking the time!
Reply
iefan PRO
a year ago
17 JULY 2015

$XAUUSD

Hi David

Although this larger development does not comply to your Geo ac-cd rule, does it meet all the WW requirements.....I'm specifically curious about the 1-3 Line not sloping down....but being horizontal? Considering this development is it more probable that a rally will commence from this level? Kind regards Iefan
snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
a year ago
Hi, @iefan - The 1-3 Line is allowed to be horizontal, but in the Geo context, it simply lessens the probability of the geometry to behave as expected. The Wolfe Wave is certainly one that would very likely correspond to this geometry, perhaps better than the Geo.

David
+1 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Thank you very much David, looks like a similar but reverse development in the US DOLLAR Index?
snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
a year ago
@iefan - Great! I just posted a potential development in the #USDollar chart:

snapshot


David
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
In essence, the index is moving in adverse excursion territory to define a probable ectopic point-5. As mentioned several times before, the frequency of these ectopic position are as follow:

1 - 5-prime = HIGH

2 - 5 = MOD.

3 - 5-second = LOW


In compliance with these frequencies, it would be prudent to expect a 5-prime development at this point. The correlate event here is to expect a push of $XAU into lower territories as well, and not to forget that $EURUSD would move in lock-step with the precious metal:


$EURUSD
snapshot

Source:
EUR vs. $USD - Potential Wolfe Wave in S/T | #euro #forex



$XAUUSD:
snapshot

Source:
$XAU vs. $USD: Probable Interim Decline; Bulish Target | #Gold



Looking at the $EUR, there is room to move, whereas $XAU has yet to validate its 5-prime along the 2-4 parallel.


So, overall, it would be reasonable that at these timeframe, next week could offer a point of repose for all of these charts from which a reversal might then develop in subsequent weeks.


David
+1 Reply
17 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$XAU hit forecast #fibonacci extensn; Expect 5' validation with reversal to Pt-4 level per Geo's OffSet Rule

snapshot


#gold
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
a year ago
5"?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sokun
a year ago
20 JUL 2015

Hello @Sokun,

Although price did follow a forecast decline, it went so forcefully that I would tend to discard any smaller TF, and start looking at the daily TF instead - The distortion that led to a 5-second attainment is simply not as engaging as the precision is lost to the sensitivity of a higher timeframe, in which a near-perfect reciprocal ab=cd symmetry has just occurred:


snapshot



Still, the Off-Set Rule of the Geo might apply, as price is likely to seek attainment and push-back to the price level corresponding to Point-3 of the dwarfed Geo (be careful of the distortion that might occur due to a daily TF influence).


David
+1 Reply
Sokun Sokun
a year ago
1268 should be still in play ounce it hits 5"?
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sokun
a year ago
@Sokun - I would look for higher probability moves. As mentioned above, price is most likely to encounter resistance if and once it rallies to level of Point-3 of the smaller Geo ... That'd be near 1160.

Baby steps.

David
+2 Reply
20 JUL 2015 - Tech-Note:

$JNUG is nearing completion of a WW - See following chart and link to updated geometry:


snapshot

Source:
$JNUG: High-Prob. Rally Into 23.0 | $NUGT $GLD #gold #euro $AUD




David Alcindor
+2 Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
a year ago
Nice.
+1 Reply
Sokun Sokun
a year ago
As I believe you mentioned a number of currency trades seem to be finishing up?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sokun
a year ago
@Sokun - What do you mean?
Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
a year ago
Just musing about correlation between the different but similarly related currencies etc
+1 Reply
Sokun Sokun
a year ago
5*?
Reply
Sokun Sokun
a year ago
any new comments?
Reply
Sokun Sokun
a year ago
is the abcd pattern complete? looks like it didnt hit d yet?
+1 Reply
Sokun Sokun
a year ago
and its testing some kind of resistance at present levels 1108 1111?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sokun
a year ago
@Sokun - Not sure what you are talking about. What chart, timeframe, pattern are you referring to?

David
Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
a year ago
do u think it still needs to hit the D on the ABCD patern?
Reply
12 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$XAUUSD continues to rally from reciprocal symmetry; Remains intent on 1201.70 per Geo's Off-Set Rule:

snapshot


$XAU $GLD
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
bitsunrise 4xForecaster
a year ago
Hi David! Doing great so far! Thanks a lot for sharing it, keep us posted on this one ;)
+1 Reply
21 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$XAU stomped at 2-4 Line (grey) + Geo's Off-Set Rule at Pt-3 (blue) ; Floor at 1092.11; Still intent on 1268.78:

snapshot

----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
25 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$XAUUSD continues to adhere to forecast: Same 1092.11 floor. Same 1268.78 target:

snapshot


$XAU #gold $JNUG $NUGT $GLD $AUD
----------


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
08 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:


Watch out for this reciprocal ab = cd symmetry, as price continues to follow the dashed-arrow forecast path:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
11 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:


$XAUUSD continued to fall as forecast; Nears 1092 support; Bullish outlook:

snapshot


$XAU #gold $GLD $SLV $AUD $CAD $CHF


David Alcindor
+4 Reply
bitsunrise 4xForecaster
a year ago
Waiting to jump on it! Thanks David, have a great weekend.
+1 Reply
16 SEP 2016 - Chart Update:


Price remains true to forecast pathway; bullish target also intact:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
ChetanFX 4xForecaster
a year ago
Do you think it can drop below 1100 before going up?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO ChetanFX
a year ago
Hello @ChetanFX - Yes, in fact I would favor that much: Price falling into the 1092.11/1082.38 range w/o breaking the mid-July structure-low, but I have not looked at that detail level - Not that the 3-5' Line extension would offer a reasonable support projection, wheres the ab = cd pattern I had drawn in pink could also outline a bullish Geo.


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
ChetanFX 4xForecaster
a year ago
Thank You.
Reply
18 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:


$XAUUSD continues to follow forecast path closely; Price stomped at larger Geo's 1-3 Line:

snapshot


$XAU #gold $GLD #euro


David Alcindor
+4 Reply
24 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:


Still tight and up-close with forecast pathway. Now BACA > 2-4 Line:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
02 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:


Consolidation has carved a higher-low; Recent high at 1156.65 may release bulls' gate:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
09 OCT 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:


$XAUUSD price action remains tethered to forecast line; Bullish outlook:

snapshot


$XAU $GLD #gold $AUD $CAD $CHF #forex


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
14 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:


Price remains in line with forecast, reached upper resistance; Bullish forecast remains intact and in force:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
millie PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
How does the upside target in XAUUSD reconcile with the bearish model for GLD? Thanks.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO millie
a year ago
Hello @millie - I have been following these two quite closely - As you may already know, $XAU and $GLD are not forcibly correlated at any strength close to 1:1. In fact, this correlation has weakened after it flipped over the years.

So, the seemingly contradiction may survive, which the chart may continue to follow their respective forecasts.

David
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
@millie - Here, I just built this chart, expressiong $XAU vs. $GLD correlation - Lower end value is a probable level from which a correction into closer correlation might occur:

snapshot


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
kmk.msp
a year ago
Dear David, My view of XAUUSD
XAUUSD

kmk.msp
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO kmk.msp
a year ago
Hi @kmk.msp - Excellent!

I think you have it right on - Love it.

David
Reply
kmk.msp 4xForecaster
a year ago
ThanKS david, Your appreciation is lot for me.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO kmk.msp
a year ago
@kmk.msp - This is good, simple charting.

Interesting how it correlates well with the $EUR chart which I believe you posted earlier, if I remmeber right.

David
Reply
07 NOV 2015 - Following is a cut/paste of "Chart Update" and "Tech-Note" comments made over the course of the thread.

I am separating the comments from my frame-by-frame analyses for ease of retrieval and clearing the chronology.

Since the Predictive/Forecasting Model is calibrated at the synthetic 4-hour frame, this is where most of the subsequent analyses will reside.

The cut/paste charts will start from this summer (07 JUL 2015). Although admittedly, there has been a lot of lower and high-frame analyses that have provided a panoply of targets using geometries, I am starting right were the geometry failed and the Predictive/Forecasting Model remained intact and in force, as it still is at this time.


===========================
07 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

Tech-Note:

Price has breached the 1-3 Line off of Point-2, negating the geometry. Predictive/Forecasting Model remains intact - See following chart:

snapshot


If a correlation between the WW or Geo and the Model re-emerges, I will be pointing it out asap.
----------
David Alcindor


07 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
---------
$XAUUSD: Watch for this potential geometric pace, down to 1131.98 at 1.618 #fibonacci extension:

snapshot


$XAU #gold $AUD
----------
David Alcindor


10 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$XAUUSD remains indecisive; Favors decline to defined level before rallying to 1201.70:

snapshot


$XAU $USD #gold $AUD $GLD
----------
David Alcindor


16 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
---------
$XAUUSD moving closer to 1.618 #fibonacci = 1131.98; Expect bullish entrenchment there:

snapshot


#gold $XAU #euro $USD $AUD
----------
David Alcindor


17 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$XAU hit forecast #fibonacci extensn; Expect 5' validation with reversal to Pt-4 level per Geo's OffSet Rule

snapshot


#gold
----------
David Alcindor


12 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$XAUUSD continues to rally from reciprocal symmetry; Remains intent on 1201.70 per Geo's Off-Set Rule:

snapshot


$XAU $GLD
----------
David Alcindor


21 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$XAU stomped at 2-4 Line (grey) + Geo's Off-Set Rule at Pt-3 (blue) ; Floor at 1092.11; Still intent on 1268.78:

snapshot


----------
David Alcindor


25 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$XAUUSD continues to adhere to forecast: Same 1092.11 floor. Same 1268.78 target:

snapshot


$XAU #gold $JNUG $NUGT $GLD $AUD
----------
David Alcindor


08 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:

Watch out for this reciprocal ab = cd symmetry, as price continues to follow the dashed-arrow forecast path:

snapshot


----------
David Alcindor


11 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:

$XAUUSD continued to fall as forecast; Nears 1092 support; Bullish outlook:

snapshot


$XAU #gold $GLD $SLV $AUD $CAD $CHF
----------
David Alcindor


16 SEP 2016 - Chart Update:

Price remains true to forecast pathway; bullish target also intact:

snapshot


----------
David Alcindor


18 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:

$XAUUSD continues to follow forecast path closely; Price stomped at larger Geo's 1-3 Line:

snapshot


$XAU #gold $GLD #euro
----------
David Alcindor


24 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:

Still tight and up-close with forecast pathway. Now BACA > 2-4 Line:

snapshot


----------
David Alcindor


02 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Consolidation has carved a higher-low; Recent high at 1156.65 may release bulls' gate:

snapshot


----------
David Alcindor


09 OCT 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:

$XAUUSD price action remains tethered to forecast line; Bullish outlook:

snapshot


$XAU $GLD #gold $AUD $CAD $CHF #forex
----------
David Alcindor


14 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price remains in line with forecast, reached upper resistance; Bullish forecast remains intact and in force:

snapshot


----------
David Alcindor
===========================


+2 Reply
kmk.msp
a year ago
My Weekly View of Gold favours further decline to Support area 1000-1040
XAUUSD forming Bearish WW pattern

kmk.msp
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO kmk.msp
a year ago
Yes, this is VERY possible.

Here is a "pearl" regarding these geometries, which I keep under the elbow, next to my java:

1 - Leg 1-2 will show some reciprocity in the geometry, either as a simple reciprocal ab = cd symmetry, or some resonance of cd segment repeated backward in the ab segment in terms of amplitude (height) or durantion (length)

2 - Leg 2-3 is the most insidious, complicated segment. It often has a "wall", or some sort of complex intervention. In terms of Elliott Wave morphology, this can be interpreted as a triple ZZ with wave-x intervening as the "wall".

So, in your geometry, consider the possibility that Point-1 starts near the year 2014, that the current 1-2 leg represents with 3-4 segment, and that your current Point-3 represents Point-5, or a NEAR expression of it ... that is a possible lower low.

Best might be to use a connecting line between Point-2 and Point-3 using the alternate geometry I am referring to, where Point-2 would be move ablve Point-1 following the simple ZZ. This 2-3 Line could then be applied off of the current Point-4 and help point to the approximated residence of Point-5.

Is this making sense?

David

+3 Reply
2use
9 months ago
Again thanx for the timely updates
Reply
itsheng
8 months ago
Hi David,

14 days ago on this page you posted following chart and you mentioned "Whereas higher-highs remain possible, bears are expected to come in force here. Invalidation of this expectation should occur if and once price BACA > Point-2 of the geometry."
snapshot


But from your latest analysis you still have 1171 as the reversal target. So what did you mean when you said "invalidation of this expectation" as this new TG-Hix definitely means BACA > Point-2.
Thank you as always!

Regards,
Sheng
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO itsheng
8 months ago
Hello @itsheng - The target remains a lesser possibility now that price crossed over the level of Point-2. As is, this bearish target now relies on its alignment with Point-4, and not so much on the prior Fibonacci alignment at 38.6 and 0.50 levels.

David
+1 Reply
Yahia.Awes
5 months ago
David, once again... You are a genious!
Reply
eYou
5 months ago
Hi David,

Thank you for this chart and update.

In your latest dollar chart you also said the dollar remains under bearish pressure - Higher top before reversal may be supplanted by a bearish H&S pattern:

snapshot


How do both the $XAUD chart and your chart about the Dollar Index relate to each other? Can both decline together?

And do you foresee a similar decline in $XAG (Silver) as well then?

Silver Lining Up For Dull Move | $XAG $USD $SILV #silver $XAU


Thank you for your time and analysis.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO eYou
5 months ago
Helo @eYou - Gold and USDollar do NOT always move in opposite directions. Certain central bank interventions are recognized to interfere with this market expectations, whereas a global economic concerns outside of the US market can also proper up gold and USD as comparable save heavens against other fiat currencies that are abandoned by large investors during a major crisis.

Here is an article I was able to find that reiterates these points, as well as a reference linked therein about a study that shows that Gold and USD can move in lockstep and thus lose their inverse correlations, given a certain set of circumstances, in both the medium and the long-terms - Worth the read:

Article: Why Gold And US Dollar Do Not Always Move Inversely:
- http://www.sunshineprofits.com/gold-silver/free-alerts/why-gold-and-us-dollar-do-not-always-move-inversely/

I hope this answers your question.

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate

Reply
eYou 4xForecaster
5 months ago
Thank you David for this article. I will read and study it. I appreciate it that you share it with us here in this community for free.
Reply
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