4xForecaster

$XAU vs. $USD: Probable Interim Decline; Bulish Target | #Gold

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
5493 138 54
Predictive/Forecasting Mode calling for interim retracement/reversal.

Background Geo             overlay is mixed, with internal (black lettering) geo             offering a possible cycle completion at its 1-4 Line per Mr. Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Wave pattern (www.WolfeWave.com), whereas a larger (grey lettering) would comply with Predictive/Forecasting Model at foreground, yielding the following bullish target:

- TG-Hi = 1268.78 - 14 MAY 2015


snapshot


In contrast to Mr. Bill Wolfe's pattern, this Geo             does depend upon internal Elliott Wave principles and geometry-based rules (e.g.: Tunneling, Geo-Anchor, Off-Set Rules), which are mere refinements of the Wolfe Wave using simple confirmatory methods, all of which have been freely shared and explicated at length in my TradingView.com discussion threads.


OVERALL:

A smaller Geo/WW appears to have completed. Caveat here is that its 1-4 Line would require a steep decline in price. A larger similar geometry would allow an ectopic Point-5 to salute the independent Predictive/Forecasting Model ruminating at higher pastures with tail wagging at 1268.78.

In terms of sequencing, Model expects:

1 - Price decline to/along the small 1-4 Line, then:
2 - Rallying into the TG-Hi hills.


INVALIDATION:

Adverse excursion > 1.414 above smaller Geo's Pt-5 should invalidate this sequencing.


Stay tuned,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


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Comment: 07 NOV 2015 - Following is a cut/paste of "Chart Update" and "Tech-Note" comments made over the course of the thread.

I am separating the comments from my frame-by-frame analyses for ease of retrieval and clearing the chronology.

Since the Predictive/Forecasting Model is calibrated at the synthetic 4-hour frame, this is where most of the subsequent analyses will reside.

The cut/paste charts will start from this summer (07 JUL 2015). Although admittedly, there has been a lot of lower and high-frame analyses that have provided a panoply of targets using geometries, I am starting right were the geometry failed and the Predictive/Forecasting Model remained intact and in force, as it still is at this time.
Comment: 07 NOV 2015 - Following is a cut/paste of "Chart Update" and "Tech-Note" comments made over the course of the thread.

I am separating the comments from my frame-by-frame analyses for ease of retrieval and clearing the chronology.

Since the Predictive/Forecasting Model is calibrated at the synthetic 4-hour frame, this is where most of the subsequent analyses will reside.

The cut/paste charts will start from this summer (07 JUL 2015). Although admittedly, there has been a lot of lower and high-frame analyses that have provided a panoply of targets using geometries, I am starting right were the geometry failed and the Predictive/Forecasting Model remained intact and in force, as it still is at this time.


===========================
07 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

Tech-Note:

Price has breached the 1-3 Line off of Point-2, negating the geometry. Predictive/Forecasting Model remains intact - See following chart:

snapshot


If a correlation between the WW or Geo and the Model re-emerges, I will be pointing it out asap.
----------
David Alcindor


07 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
---------
$XAUUSD: Watch for this potential geometric pace, down to 1131.98 at 1.618 #fibonacci extension:

snapshot


$XAU #gold $AUD
----------
David Alcindor


10 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$XAUUSD remains indecisive; Favors decline to defined level before rallying to 1201.70:

snapshot


$XAU $USD #gold $AUD $GLD
----------
David Alcindor


16 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
---------
$XAUUSD moving closer to 1.618 #fibonacci = 1131.98; Expect bullish entrenchment there:

snapshot


#gold $XAU #euro $USD $AUD
----------
David Alcindor


17 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$XAU hit forecast #fibonacci extensn; Expect 5' validation with reversal to Pt-4 level per Geo's OffSet Rule

snapshot


#gold
----------
David Alcindor


12 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$XAUUSD continues to rally from reciprocal symmetry; Remains intent on 1201.70 per Geo's Off-Set Rule:

snapshot


$XAU $GLD
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David Alcindor
Comment: 21 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$XAU stomped at 2-4 Line (grey) + Geo's Off-Set Rule at Pt-3 (blue) ; Floor at 1092.11; Still intent on 1268.78:

snapshot


----------
David Alcindor


25 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$XAUUSD continues to adhere to forecast: Same 1092.11 floor. Same 1268.78 target:

snapshot


$XAU #gold $JNUG $NUGT $GLD $AUD
----------
David Alcindor


08 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:

Watch out for this reciprocal ab = cd symmetry, as price continues to follow the dashed-arrow forecast path:

snapshot


----------
David Alcindor


11 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:

$XAUUSD continued to fall as forecast; Nears 1092 support; Bullish outlook:

snapshot


$XAU #gold $GLD $SLV $AUD $CAD $CHF
----------
David Alcindor


16 SEP 2016 - Chart Update:

Price remains true to forecast pathway; bullish target also intact:

snapshot


----------
David Alcindor


18 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:

$XAUUSD continues to follow forecast path closely; Price stomped at larger Geo's 1-3 Line:

snapshot


$XAU #gold $GLD #euro
----------
David Alcindor


24 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:

Still tight and up-close with forecast pathway. Now BACA > 2-4 Line:

snapshot


----------
David Alcindor


02 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Consolidation has carved a higher-low; Recent high at 1156.65 may release bulls' gate:

snapshot


----------
David Alcindor


09 OCT 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:

$XAUUSD price action remains tethered to forecast line; Bullish outlook:

snapshot


$XAU $GLD #gold $AUD $CAD $CHF #forex
----------
David Alcindor


14 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price remains in line with forecast, reached upper resistance; Bullish forecast remains intact and in force:

snapshot


----------
David Alcindor
===========================
Comment: 07 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

At this time, price validated the lower "Bullish Entrenchment". This is the level that I had expected would get validated from prior test. Consider this done.

snapshot


Invalidation would come as a breach of the lowest structural low (circa point-d of the recprocal ab = cd.

Note also how this adds further credence to a probable decline in $USD crosses and #USDollar Index, which I just posted.

David Alcindor
Comment: ADDENDUM - Tech-Note:

From @kmk.msp who posted this complete Wolfe Wave cycle yesterday:

XAUUSD


Excellent.

David Alcindor
Comment: 10 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price remains tethered within the forecast 1092/1082 bullish entrenchment zone - Bulls stopped bears and continue to push back:

snapshot


David Alcindor
Comment: 18 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As price breached through the range, it is now validating the pre-defined reciprocal ab = cd symmetry ... Now, look for RSI patterns to reiterate and aid in signaling a rally:

snapshot


David Alcindor
Comment: 05 MAY 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note: Target Hit

This has been a long, tedious undulating price action, which finally hit the 1268.78 target defined last May 2015:
snapshot


This level was finally reached, defining a high-probability reversal level, with most immediate target defined at the 11.71.08 level, approximating the 50% Fibonacci value.

Whereas higher-highs remain possible, bears are expected to come in force here. Invalidation of this expectation should occur if and once price BACA > Point-2 of the geometry.

Best,

David Alcindor
Comment: 05 MAR 2016 - ADDENDUM:

Worth noting here is the actual geometric completion of this larger system, justifying the adverse excursion and lower-lows formed prior to price heading towards the Predictive/Forecasting Model's target, which stood higher than the geometry's own 1-4 Line target:
snapshot


As the 1-4 Line target has been hit as well, this adds further credence to the probability of a price relaxation to the downside.

Best,

David Alcindor
Comment: 18 MAR 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price is defining a protracted consolidation pattern, slowly outlining a probable Wolfe Wave/Geo in this process.

As usual, Point-4 remains the most fluid element in the developing geometry. However, following are a series of technical hallmarks worth heeding, as their divergence focus on a narrow probable target range, with a predictive/Forecasting model pointing to 1307.61:
snapshot


You will notice that this 1307.61, defined by the Predictive/Forecasting Model aligns quite tightly with two 1.618-Fibonacci extensions, as illustrated in the following chart:
snapshot


Additionally, but not as precisely, a large reciprocal ab = cd symmetry would complete in the same vicinity, as illustrated in the following chart:
snapshot


OVERALL - As indicated in the large DAILY chart, the bearish target remains pending at 1171.08. However, an interim geometric completion remains pending as shown in the following chart, based on a probable geometric completion in the Wolfe Wave/Geo and internal ab = cd, reinforced by a Fibonacci confluence at 1.618.

What ensues is a probable price pathway, as illustrated in the following chart, where the dashed lines define the probable extent of resistance and support range that would carry price first to a geometric completion at the bullish target of 1307.61, then repel price to a support at 1171.08:
snapshot


Best,


David Alcindor
Comment: 22 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Watch for possible attainment of the 1370.87 handle. However, bears remain in charge overall:

snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster
Comment: 30 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:

Watch for 1370.87:

snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor, CMT #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
Comment: 05 JUL 2016 - Chart Update:
Comment:
snapshot


Look for significant resistance building up.

David
Comment: 14 DEC 2016 - $XAUUSD - All bearish targets hit defined this past 06 OCT 2016

snapshot


Check #CROWSignalService on Twitter for recent recorded performances.

Cheers!

David Alcindor
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
Perfect job again David!
+1 Reply
Hi David,

Thank you for this chart and update.

In your latest dollar chart you also said the dollar remains under bearish pressure - Higher top before reversal may be supplanted by a bearish H&S pattern:

snapshot


How do both the $XAUD chart and your chart about the Dollar Index relate to each other? Can both decline together?

And do you foresee a similar decline in $XAG (Silver) as well then?

Silver Lining Up For Dull Move | $XAG $USD $SILV #silver $XAU


Thank you for your time and analysis.
+1 Reply
Helo @eYou - Gold and USDollar do NOT always move in opposite directions. Certain central bank interventions are recognized to interfere with this market expectations, whereas a global economic concerns outside of the US market can also proper up gold and USD as comparable save heavens against other fiat currencies that are abandoned by large investors during a major crisis.

Here is an article I was able to find that reiterates these points, as well as a reference linked therein about a study that shows that Gold and USD can move in lockstep and thus lose their inverse correlations, given a certain set of circumstances, in both the medium and the long-terms - Worth the read:

Article: Why Gold And US Dollar Do Not Always Move Inversely:
- http://www.sunshineprofits.com/gold-silver/free-alerts/why-gold-and-us-dollar-do-not-always-move-inversely/

I hope this answers your question.

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate

Reply
eYou 4xForecaster
Thank you David for this article. I will read and study it. I appreciate it that you share it with us here in this community for free.
Reply
David, once again... You are a genious!
Reply
Hi David,

14 days ago on this page you posted following chart and you mentioned "Whereas higher-highs remain possible, bears are expected to come in force here. Invalidation of this expectation should occur if and once price BACA > Point-2 of the geometry."
snapshot


But from your latest analysis you still have 1171 as the reversal target. So what did you mean when you said "invalidation of this expectation" as this new TG-Hix definitely means BACA > Point-2.
Thank you as always!

Regards,
Sheng
+1 Reply
Hello @itsheng - The target remains a lesser possibility now that price crossed over the level of Point-2. As is, this bearish target now relies on its alignment with Point-4, and not so much on the prior Fibonacci alignment at 38.6 and 0.50 levels.

David
+1 Reply
Again thanx for the timely updates
Reply
My Weekly View of Gold favours further decline to Support area 1000-1040
XAUUSD forming Bearish WW pattern

kmk.msp
+2 Reply
Yes, this is VERY possible.

Here is a "pearl" regarding these geometries, which I keep under the elbow, next to my java:

1 - Leg 1-2 will show some reciprocity in the geometry, either as a simple reciprocal ab = cd symmetry, or some resonance of cd segment repeated backward in the ab segment in terms of amplitude (height) or durantion (length)

2 - Leg 2-3 is the most insidious, complicated segment. It often has a "wall", or some sort of complex intervention. In terms of Elliott Wave morphology, this can be interpreted as a triple ZZ with wave-x intervening as the "wall".

So, in your geometry, consider the possibility that Point-1 starts near the year 2014, that the current 1-2 leg represents with 3-4 segment, and that your current Point-3 represents Point-5, or a NEAR expression of it ... that is a possible lower low.

Best might be to use a connecting line between Point-2 and Point-3 using the alternate geometry I am referring to, where Point-2 would be move ablve Point-1 following the simple ZZ. This 2-3 Line could then be applied off of the current Point-4 and help point to the approximated residence of Point-5.

Is this making sense?

David

+3 Reply
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