FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
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Weekly Timeframe: Last week saw Gold print an indecision candle just above a weekly swap level located at 1222.2. If buying strength is seen from this level, watch for the weekly swap level seen just above at 1251.5 to potentially repel the market. A break below 1222.2 on the other hand would likely open the doors to further downside towards a weekly demand area seen at 1166.8-1195.0.

Daily Timeframe: Friday’s trading action saw further buying enter the market, which consequently forced price higher into a daily decision-point supply area seen at 1245.8-1233.1. This area of supply remains a key obstacle to a move towards the weekly swap level mentioned above at 1251.5.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that the swing low 1217.3 (12/01/15) was clearly a respected number in the market. This should come as no surprise really considering that this level was located just above a daily decision-point demand area base coming in at 1204.4-1216.5.

From 1217.3, the market rallied up to a small 4hr supply area at 1238.6-1235.2 (located within the aforementioned small daily decision-point supply area), which as you can see, saw active selling just before the close at 1229.6.

With the above in mind, our team has no decided that no selling will be initiated until price closes below the weekly swap level at 1222.2. Buying on the hand is also rather tricky. Even though price is currently trading around a weekly swap level at the moment, we mustn’t forget that we are also seeing trading just below a daily decision-point supply area as well (see above). Therefore, shorting from the aforementioned 4hr supply area, which as mentioned above is located within this daily area, may not be the best path to take, as higher-timeframe opposition could very well enter the market from the weekly level (1222.2) this week. With that, our team has decided to step aside here and wait for further price action to develop.
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The tragic and dangerous events in Ukraine and Yemen are unfortunately unfolding in the manner I implied in my excellent blog comments on February 13, 2015, which I now quote below (see 2nd and 3rd paragraphs), and are part of the reasons for the decline in DXY and DJUA, and a sharp rise in Gold and Silver prices on Feb 13, 2015, and also the currently sharp rise in Gold price today which is now UP $4.50 to $1,232 per oz today Feb 16, 2016 :

Shenfeld's comment in yesterday's marketwatch.com article is grossly misleading !! There won't be any increase in the FRB Fed Funds rate until 2017 at the earliest, as the PCE Annual Inflation Index won't reach the FRB Mandated 2% level until 2017 according to the latest estimate released this week by the FRB !!! Furthermore, according to the "Optimal Control" Policy of FRB Chair Yellen, the Annual Core Rate of Inflation of the PCE must me somewhat above 2% FOR AT LEAST A FEW MONTHS BEFORE SHE WILL CONSIDER RAISING THE FED FUNDS RATE !! This is of course very Bullish for Gold & Silver prices going forward !! The fall in Spanish Inflation Rate reported today, due to low Crude Oil price, is an example preventing Central Bank tightening, and is why the Central Banks bought 477 metric tons of Gold in 2014 !

Yesterday's news from the latest Ukraine Peace Talks is also very Bullish for Gold and Silver prices, as the clever President Putin continues to string along the West so they don't impose more Sanctions on the Russian Federation; Kiev reported that during the night, 40 Russian Tanks, 40 Missile Batteries, 40 armored vehicles, and 1,500 Russian Troop infiltrated from Russia into Ukraine at the Luhansk entry point, and are advancing quickly towards the all-important Rail Hub at Debaltseve to complete the encirclement of the helpless and bankrupt thousands of Ukraine Troops there. Naturally, this Ukraine Crisis is very bullish news for Gold price and very Bearish for DJIA which has strong Negative Correlation to Gold price; Gold price is now rising up on its 3rd Leg Super Cycle to new all-time-highs well above $3,000 per oz through 2020. This ongoing historic Gold Bull Market started at $253 per oz in 2001.

Notice that when Dec 31, 2014 came, and Gold price was well above the $1,050 prediction of Jeff Currie, the GS Chief Commodity Analyst, he refused to admit he was wrong, but rather simply chose to change his prediction to $1,050 per oz on Dec 2015 instead so as to preserve his job! This latest GS estimate on Gold price for Dec 31, 2015 is equally ludicrous according to the latest conservative estimate by Citi Bank that Gold price would average $1,239 per oz in 2015 . The Greece debacle still hangs in the balance. Other rising Geopolitical Tensions capable of providing Black Swan Events Bullish for Gold & Silver include the Yemen Houthi Rebels who yesterday kicked out American Embassy Personnel & Guards, and now at Iran's command could attack Saudi Arabian Crude Oil Wells to raise the price of Crude Oil; today, Israel's Intelligence Minister issued an ominous warning to the Iran Nuclear Negotiators that Israel's Military options are still available for destruction of the Arak Heavy Water Plant and other lucrative Targets if deemed necessary by PM Netanyahu who yesterday admitted publicly that he has substantial disagreements with President Obama over the Iran Nuclear negotiations, and will deliver his laments to a Joint Session of U.S. Congress in March 2015 !!

Yesterday, Speaker Boehner mentioned that he may close down the Department of Homeland Security on Feb 27 due to lack of Budget, and this would obviously add more potential for Black Swan Events boosting the price of Gold and Silver prices !

So far in 2015, the collusion between the FRB and some large banks such as HSBC, as per the excellent Dec 2014 Internet article "Inside Story On Gold price Manipulation -- Naked Gold Shorts" , by Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, has backfired, with sharp gains in Gold, Silver, and HUI in 2015 !! Feb 13, 2015 at 9:37 pm PST.
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