Short, Then Long, Then VERY short. for FX:XAUUSD by willworknow

Short for the VERY short term....seen by my charts. The real trade is long.

This is the possible outcome for gold. Notice the green arrows denoting wave 3? Wave three is typically the strongest and the Awesome oscillator indicates this with the peak of the lower green arrow. Notice the negative divergence with the red arrows...indicating weakness. But the largest/most important pattern is within the blue converging trend lines for wave 5. This is looking like an Ending Diagonal....similar to my Hang Seng chart that started to crash within a month of prediction. In commodities, wave 5 is typically strong too. This gives further evidence of an Ending Diagonal...due to the 5th wave showing extreme weakness.

The shot up out of this Ending Diagonal should be sharp and rapid...also remembering this is a weekly chart...nothing happens fast. This move up should be part of a 3-wave move, wave (B), to the upside before crashing back to the $600 area in wave (C). Everything after the shot up out of the Ending Diagonal is a VERY rough guess...but the $600 area is a typical stopping point for this entire correction...4th wave of a lesser degree...in Elliott Wave terms. The move up will be a bear-market rally...so don't think this will continue forever. The key to mark the end of the (B) wave is the three wave structure indicated by the green a-b-c. At the end of the green c (which should roughly equal the same length as the green a), you should not be long.

Comment:

The blue wave v should actually be relabeled iii and now we are in wave v of this Ending Diagonal. The red 5 and blue (A) are about right and where this ED will presumably end. Right now is close to a good time to buy gold...a little further down for a trade.

Comment:

UPDATE: We have just competed wave a (on 12-3-2015 to $1046) of the a-b-c for the final 5th wave of the Ending Diagonal. We should now be in wave b to the $1101-1118 area prior to one last low...then a thrust up to $1400 and higher. Any new low past $1046 could complete this Ending Diagonal.

Comment:

UPDATE: This move up should now be within wave b of an a-b-c for wave 5...with one more low expected to complete wave 5 of the Ending Diagonal. If you look at cocoa. It completed an ED in 2001. It took 9 months to form and 2-4 weeks to retrace to the beginning.

My concern right now is, just like in the above image, it may be difficult to see a 3-wave move down for wave 5. The C wave must have been really small (above) and it may have been now.

Comment:

One more thing....I noticed the green a-b-c (forming blue (B) ) are all way high and not measured. The green "a" should probably be around the $1400/40 area and the green "c" should be about the same length as the green "a". The green "b" may be down 38.2% of the green "a"...but this is all speculation and based on perfect Elliott...

Comment:

UPDATE: Failure for silver to move up with gold, and the structure of this move up, makes be believe that we are still tracing out wave b up. Today we MAY have started wave c for a new low past $1046. The other option is, we have completed the Ending Diagonal and will continue up. I think this is unlikely due to the lackadaisical move up from $1046. BOY IS THIS TAKING A LONG TIME!!! For futures options, you have to get it perfect, timing as well, but the payoff could be massive.

Comment:

UPDATE: One more thing for one more low and against the complete Ending Diagonal. If you look at the move up on the H4 chart, you will see negative divergence on the Awesome Osc or MACD....meaning this move up is weak. if you look at this (EUR/$), the Awesome Osc went straight up once complete:

I will post the H4 of gold today.

Comment:

UPDATE:It is getting more and more difficult to not call this Ending Diagonal complete. The only thing I have to go on is, the market does "sneaky" things. Like the EUR/$ I was tracking:

Too early and incorrectly labeled...this definitely looked impulsive (to me at least) up...BUT WASN'T. Notice that even the Awesome Osc/MACD even spiked up a little:

Came down for one last low (taking out stops)...now correctly labeled:

Waiting pays off:

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