Short, Then Long, Then VERY short.

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
249 11 2
Short for the VERY short term....seen by my charts. The real trade is long.

This is the possible outcome for gold             . Notice the green arrows denoting wave 3? Wave three is typically the strongest and the Awesome oscillator indicates this with the peak of the lower green arrow. Notice the negative divergence with the red arrows...indicating weakness. But the largest/most important pattern is within the blue converging trend lines for wave 5. This is looking like an Ending Diagonal ....similar to my Hang Seng chart that started to crash within a month of prediction. In commodities , wave 5 is typically strong too. This gives further evidence of an Ending Diagonal ...due to the 5th wave showing extreme weakness.

The shot up out of this Ending Diagonal should be sharp and rapid...also remembering this is a weekly chart...nothing happens fast. This move up should be part of a 3-wave             move, wave (B), to the upside before crashing back to the $600 area in wave (C). Everything after the shot up out of the Ending Diagonal is a VERY rough guess...but the $600 area is a typical stopping point for this entire correction...4th wave of a lesser degree...in Elliott Wave terms. The move up will be a bear-market rally...so don't think this will continue forever. The key to mark the end of the (B) wave is the three wave structure indicated by the green a-b-c. At the end of the green c (which should roughly equal the same length as the green a), you should not be long.
Comment: The blue wave v should actually be relabeled iii and now we are in wave v of this Ending Diagonal. The red 5 and blue (A) are about right and where this ED will presumably end. Right now is close to a good time to buy gold...a little further down for a trade.
Comment: UPDATE: We have just competed wave a (on 12-3-2015 to $1046) of the a-b-c for the final 5th wave of the Ending Diagonal. We should now be in wave b to the $1101-1118 area prior to one last low...then a thrust up to $1400 and higher. Any new low past $1046 could complete this Ending Diagonal.
Comment: UPDATE: This move up should now be within wave b of an a-b-c for wave 5...with one more low expected to complete wave 5 of the Ending Diagonal. If you look at cocoa. It completed an ED in 2001. It took 9 months to form and 2-4 weeks to retrace to the beginning.


My concern right now is, just like in the above image, it may be difficult to see a 3-wave move down for wave 5. The C wave must have been really small (above) and it may have been now.
Comment: One more thing....I noticed the green a-b-c (forming blue (B) ) are all way high and not measured. The green "a" should probably be around the $1400/40 area and the green "c" should be about the same length as the green "a". The green "b" may be down 38.2% of the green "a"...but this is all speculation and based on perfect Elliott...
Comment: UPDATE: Failure for silver to move up with gold, and the structure of this move up, makes be believe that we are still tracing out wave b up. Today we MAY have started wave c for a new low past $1046. The other option is, we have completed the Ending Diagonal and will continue up. I think this is unlikely due to the lackadaisical move up from $1046. BOY IS THIS TAKING A LONG TIME!!! For futures options, you have to get it perfect, timing as well, but the payoff could be massive.
Comment: UPDATE: One more thing for one more low and against the complete Ending Diagonal. If you look at the move up on the H4 chart, you will see negative divergence on the Awesome Osc or MACD....meaning this move up is weak. if you look at this (EUR/$), the Awesome Osc went straight up once complete:
I will post the H4 of gold today.
Comment: UPDATE:It is getting more and more difficult to not call this Ending Diagonal complete. The only thing I have to go on is, the market does "sneaky" things. Like the EUR/$ I was tracking:

Too early and incorrectly labeled...this definitely looked impulsive (to me at least) up...BUT WASN'T. Notice that even the Awesome Osc/MACD even spiked up a little:

Came down for one last low (taking out stops)...now correctly labeled:

Waiting pays off:
UPDATE: My wave (B) appears to be WAY too high. Green wave a may be over. It's wait and see time, but $1380 to $1485 might be all we see. This is a bear-market rally before MUCH lower lows.
Update: It appears gold is respecting the lower trend line possibly ending blue wave iii. I would replace the blue "v" (where there's a gray wave iii) and make it wave "iii"...ending the Ending Diagonal closer to what I have labeled red wave "5". We should have one more low prior to a thrust up. Wave iv should overlap wave i prior to ending in wave v for the new low.
hussain9 willworknow
Excellent .
look4edge hussain9
or just this...
hussain9 look4edge
As wellworknow Wrote .We have 5 waves down of a correction A , may b finished if E.D. or not yet :
so we are dealing with a possible ZZ wave correction 5-3-5 , so after finishing this we expecting 3 waves up abc of B that can reach 61% of wave A. then 5 waves down of C .
look4edge hussain9
nice, i have thought A over where you have 3, now in B
if A finished only now, then B can be huge...
btw. like your ew counts very much, so clean :)
hussain9 look4edge
u r welcome
willworknow look4edge
I don't see how these (W), (X) and (Y) fit into this move down. I can MAYBE see an a-b-c (from the top) to form a (W) to 6-23-2013...but not where you have it.
look4edge willworknow
i considered such an A, i didn`t know it must be an impulse..., so maybe not ew correct
willworknow look4edge
This would be closer to a possibility but with a label of (W) where your (c) is. I still think, based on negative divergence in the Awesome Oscillator, that we are forming an Ending Diagonal to for a wave (A). I expect gold to reach around the $700-800 area where the 4th wave of a lesser degree resides. The weakness to the downside indicates this move down is nearly done...meaning we need a bounce before continuing down. I think this move up will be a bull trap right before wave (c) to the $700-800 area. At this point, everyone will be too scared to get into gold...at the precise time they should be thinking long positions.
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