VirtualFax

"Bullishits" flag has failed. Can triangle still save bull run?

FX_IDC:XAUUSD   GOLD / US DOLLAR
403 15 4
This is just a (crazy?) idea as a result of (over-?)analyzing the Gold             chart in light of the last two days developments.

After I came up with the idea I started searching and was able to easily find on the web a couple of similar looking (though not Gold             related) continuation symmetrical triangle patterns with the happy-ending bullish moves upon breakouts. Can you find similarities, especially with the RIG chart?

=> You'll have to click on or copy/paste the links below. Don't worry - they are safe. <=

I interpret them as a sign that though this my view might be crazy but at least not completely unrealistic. Landing on 200 MA, which I expect to be tagged and get bounced off as opposed to burn through it, could provide another argument in favour of the 'right' direction.

RIG
http://www.mysmartrend.com/images/ta-symmetrical-triangle.jpg

SUNW            
http://d.stockcharts.com/school/data/media/chart_school/chart_analysis/chart_patterns/symmetrical_triangle_continuation/symtri-conti-sun2.png

Now - thoughts. I need your thoughts!
Comment: Is it how we are going to tag the daily 200 MA before taking off (and hopefully not breaking down on Friday unemployment report?

snapshot
Comment: If my theory is right then today and/or maybe tomorrow is the last chance to buy Gold on sale before the next big move.

And if my theory is wrong than my theory is wrong...

However, regardless of what I'm saying (have said or will ever say) trade exclusively YOUR OWN plan. And, please, trade with care!

Below I redrawn the trendlile which is forming the lower border of the triangle (thick black line) more acurately, having it running precisely (up to the penny) through the June 20, 2015 and May 30, 2015 lows. In this version today's action have not compromised the trendline. Or, at least, haven't yet.

snapshot
Comment:
snapshot
Comment: Will this flag shoot Gold to 70's today?


snapshot
Comment: Looks like another Gold'en bullish'it flag failure...

snapshot
Comment: Those who believe Gold will re-bounce next week and who don't mind some risk taking might consider the opportunity to buy JNUG today around the day's low.

The risk is obviously holding the stock over the weekend into the promising but still unknown of the following week.

However, this is not a trade advice; trade your own plan. And, please, trade with care.

snapshot
Comment: JNUG ran out of time on Fri as the trading session ended before the completion of the pattern. However, there still might be a chance that the triangle completes itself either before the beginning of Monday session or at around/shortly after opening.

The pattern itself is rather bullish: http://thepatternsite.com/EWTriangleDescending.html

snapshot
Comment: For good or not (hopefully the former) but my $9.63 JNUG patiently waiting since late afternoon on Fri order got filled today in PM.
Comment: Can the history repeat itself or is it just my wishful thinking?

This week's action:
snapshot


End of May action:
snapshot
Comment: In anticipation of the FOMC minutes I'm setting up another JNUG order at $9.51 (one cent above the recent low). SL at 3% below the purchase price. I don't hold my breath for it to get hit but I already have a position taken this morning so I'm quite indifferent whether it fills or not. The worst thing that could happen - the order gets filled but stopped out before JNUG turns around flies away. Happened to me before.

However, should you decide to trade please trade YOUR OWN plan.
Comment: New day - new theory...

snapshot
I guess it is the right time to buy this week ?
Reply
VirtualFax albertwt
If Gold price is aware that this is the pattern it has to follow, then absolutely... ; )
Reply
webmiztriz PRO VirtualFax
hello... ive seen you mention chartfreak a few times.. how do you know him? are you a subscriber?
Reply
VirtualFax webmiztriz
I'm not but I know you are.

I came across his blogs sometime in 2014 through ST, even before he launched his paid subscription service. After he started charging, I continue reading his public blogs only. For educational purposes I consider them sufficient since I'm not an F/T trader and have a day job.
Reply
webmiztriz PRO VirtualFax
yes ... I am. do I know u?
Reply
VirtualFax webmiztriz
No, you don't
Reply
hmm .. wouldnt that be something.... ;)
Reply
VirtualFax webmiztriz
It definitely would! What does Alex say to his inner circle?
Reply
webmiztriz PRO VirtualFax
i haent read todays report yet... i work full time.. most likely around lunchtime i will ...
Reply
VirtualFax webmiztriz
Mind sharing the main points? Will trade a kiss in exchange (of course, only if you like me on this pic)
Reply
webmiztriz PRO VirtualFax
*buy a subscription and you'll know... ;o)
Reply
webmiztriz PRO VirtualFax
hes worth every penny... the man works like a dog .. incessantly....
Reply
VirtualFax webmiztriz
That would be too much info for me 3x/week. But I respect you keeping his copyrighted material private.
Reply
One thing about Gold that has been bothering me more and more as this past week has been unfolding is the excessively bullish sentiment. Everybody seems to believe that after this last drop Gold will skyrocket. Extreme bullishness (same as bearishness) is typically not a good sign and often is associated with the move in the opposite direction but I hope it's just me being overcautious this time around.

Anyway, my Gold related positions are long as well. Let's see what next week brings to the table...
+1 Reply
ill take it .........
Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
France
Italia
Polska
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Sign Out