Gold Short Term View and Possibe Mid term trades

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
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This just my thinking looking at Gold             . Not trade advice or to be relied on.

Fundamental: Weak dollar due to less and less faith in a fed interest rate hike anytime soon.
Stronger gold             and commodities value in the face of a weak dollar.
Rising commodity backed currency value vs the major i.e NZD/USD             , AUD/USD             and CAD/JPY             to name three. Telling me that sentiment is more risk on with investors looking to higher yielding pairs.

Technically: Pretty obvious TO ME, that Gold             is on a crash course for 1200 marked by a strong black level drawn. just above that is a blue area, i.e orderblock/stops. This extension of the support zone to me represents the extreme areas that people would place stops around 1200 hence the need for this zone to be cleared to warrant me buying gold             in the long term. break of the orderblock zone would lead gold             to hit a long time down trendline at which I expect a pull back to 1200. 1200 is clearly significant if we look at past price and I expect price to be magnetised to this level if it does break up higher.

From the retest of 1200 I see one of two thing happening. Either a bounce and break of the ascending triangle as it is very "pressurised at this point signalling a possible breakout."

On the Short side A break of such a strong level like 1200 could see a fall back to the two levels drawn where price may stall and rally slightly before eventually hitting the weaker rising trendline that begun around 1070. If so the short I envision would bounce off the level at 1150 or keep falling to a stronger horizontal level.

Feel free to leave any ideas or information you think I should have considered when analysing.

As stated just my opinion. I am not an expert or professional analyst and do not claim to know everything so take it with a pinch of salt.
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