Today everything can happen, whether the price will downward breakout or not. This time I still stand on my view, that sooner or later the Gold’s price will come in to the range $1,070 - $975 per ounce if we lost $1180. These are some of my reasons :
1. In my first post about the "Gold Identified A Continuation" I look that price movement has formed a Left Hook formation, when $ 1,525 had experienced downward breakout with the first target to $1,180 (June 2013 Low) and then price moves up are limited to $1,435 (Aug 2014 High) within 2 months to build the upper and lower boundary of the handle @ $1,435 and @ $ 1,180.
2. As far as I know for the phase construction of the handle, the price will moves to retest the upper and lower boundary and up to now after 14 months consolidation, $1,435 so far untouched and $ 1,180 was touched in Dec 2013 and recorded low @ $1,178 (depending on the broker). For me, it’s interpret that $1,180 - $1,178 have a weakness condition. If $1,1180 lost, price will go to around $1,070 - $975 with prediction time is 1 or 2 months after the breakout.
3. In my post about "The Mirror Of Historical Chart", I use the Top formation. In a Cup, the construction of the handle is represent the consolidation movement and until now the price have not been able to settle above the first and second handle and the otherwise, it be covered below of consolidation area, first @ $ 1,295 (50% from the Cup’s high) and second @ $1,270 (62% from the Cup’s high).
4. In another measurement, I use the boundary testing of $1,345 - $1,395 and the $1,180 - $1,178. A would tend not to test its peak when prices can’t go pass $1,345 and a would tend not to test its valley when the price can not be passed $1,255. But we look at that the consolidation, price has never closed above $1,345 after $1,178 Low and the other site has closed below $1,255 boundary (it done on May 2014 closed @ $1,249 and June 2014 recorded @ $1,240 Low) after a high of $1,395. It’s interpret the strongest of $1,435 - $1,395 to retest $1,240. If $1,240 lost, price will go to back test $1,178 Low.
at least, now I look at the Monthly Time Frame that the price movement tends to complete the formation. I obtained the calculation that the average high price of a Right Shoulder of the Head & Shoulder Top is $1,345.
what's the market wants ? Plunge or turn over ? no one knows until they come.
actually, today we are in front of a decision point and for this time, I was standing in my view to maintain my short and will change the view when prices can be unlocked $1,295/$1,305 area or any reversal up candle.
All just is my view, when they indicate something different and I think the trend will be turn over.
at least, to day that is what i know.
From The Desk Of Newbie