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US elections: Gold likes democrat victory

FX_IDC:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
Monthly chart pattern - long-term Flag and Pole formation

Flag resistance (upper end) is seen around $1415. Prior to that, metal faces a major hurdle at $1380 (38.2% Fibo retracement of 2011 high – 2015).

A lot of attention has been given to gold’s relationship between USD index, easy monetary policy , interest rate, stocks, etc.

But there is little talk out there on gold’s performance during US elections. To the naked eye, studying the exact relationship/behavior is difficult since hundred other things were going on in the election years.

Today’s London Open show – http://www.tiptv.co.uk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXcon30T5pA

In today’s London open Finance show, we discussed gold’s performance in the US election years, the conclusion being –

Gold             likes democrat victory, while stocks cheer republican victory (Trump!)

Gold             does better post elections than in the run up to elections

Gold             usually likes second term for existing President (not the case this time)

Silver             has performed poorly in 18 out of 25 election years

In case, we have Clinton victory, we could see a bullish break from Flag formation – a continuation pattern, which means continuation of rally from 2000 lows.
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