Gold: Technical outlook...

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
263 0 5
While weekly price has established itself around the top edge of a support area at 1307.4-1280.0, and daily candles have taken root within a demand base at 1305             .3-1322.8, medium-term direction, at least technically, is likely to be northbound. As such, with H4 movement seen consolidating within a resistance area registered at 1312             .0-1316.0, a close above this zone is the more likely scenario to play out.

However, we’re certainly not suggesting buying the yellow metal right now. Upon a decisive close above the current H4 resistance zone , looking for buying opportunities on a strong retest of this boundary is, nonetheless, something our team will very likely consider. Should this come into play, the first take-profit objective can be seen at the minor H4 Quasimodo resistance drawn from 1326.1, followed closely by the H4 supply area seen at 1331.8-1329.6.

Despite the technicals painting a relatively clear picture at the moment, we do have to keep in mind that the Fed is set to make an appearance later on today around 6-6.30pm GMT             . This, as we’re sure most are already aware, is a relatively dangerous time for technical traders to be participating in the market. A general rule of thumb that we subscribe to is no positions are to be taken 30 minutes pre/post the event, which has so far served us well.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Watch for price to close beyond the H4 resistance area at 1312             .0-1316.0 and then look to trade any retest seen thereafter - waiting for a H4 bullish close to form following the retest is preferred (Stop loss: beyond the trigger candle).
• Sells: Flat (Stop loss: n/a).

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